水利学报2024，Vol.55Issue(6)：643-653,11.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20230792
考虑历史洪水资料的三峡水库运行期非一致性设计洪水估算
Non-stationary design flood estimation of Three Gorges Reservoir in operation period considering historical information
摘要
Abstract
At-site natural annual maximum flood series and the Pearson Type Ⅲ(P-Ⅲ)distribution curve fitting method are used to estimate flood quantiles and determine the reservoir characteristic water levels in the planning and design stage of water conservancy and hydropower projects.However,the stationary assumption of flood data series has been destroyed because of the construction and operation of upstream reservoirs.In this paper,a time-varying moment model for non-stationary flood frequency analysis was built,and the Reservoir Index(RI)of key large-scale reservoirs in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River was calculated.Based on the monotonically in-creasing property of the distribution function of the continuous flood variable,the time-varying P-Ⅲ curve fitting method was proposed to fit the Q-Q plots.The non-stationary design floods during operation period of the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR)were inferred and compared with those of the maximum likelihood(ML)method.The results show that:(1)The RI effectively reflects the non-stationarity of flood series,serving as covariates in the time-varying P-Ⅲ model;(2)The time-varying P-Ⅲ curve fitting method yields a smaller AIC value than the ML method,indicating a better fitness for historical flood series;(3)Compared with the original results,The non-stationary design flood peak,along with the 3-day and 7-day flood volume of TGR are decreased by about 18％,while the 15-day and 30-day design flood volumes are decreased by about 14％.These results demonstrate that the regulation of the cascade reservoirs in the upper Yangtze River directly affects the flood control capacity and charac-teristic water level of TGR during operation period.关键词
设计洪水/非一致性/不连序系列/时变矩法/水库系数/P-Ⅲ型适线法/极大似然法/三峡水库Key words
design flood/non-stationary/non-continuous data series/time-varying moment/reservoir index/P-Ⅲ curve fitting method/maximum likelihood method/Three Gorges Reservoir分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
谢雨祚,郭生练,熊立华,王俊,钟斯睿,杨媛婷..考虑历史洪水资料的三峡水库运行期非一致性设计洪水估算[J].水利学报,2024,55(6):643-653,11.基金项目
国家重点研发计划课题(2022YFC3202801) （2022YFC3202801）
国家自然科学基金长江联合基金项目(U2340205) （U2340205）
