基于ARMA模型的隧道变形预测及参数估计分析OA

Taking a shantytown renovation project of a subway station in Haidian District,Beijing as an example,the ARMA model is used to predict the deformation of the adjacent existing subway tunnel during the construction pro-cess of the top-down excavation method for high-rise buildings.The real-time monitoring data of the settlement is taken as the original data set to appropriate interpolation process of the original data set.The parameters of the model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method to give the key parameters of the model,and a reason-able prediction model is constructed.By comparing the model prediction results with the measured data,it is shown that the prediction results are highly consistent with the change trend of the measured data,which fully verifies the feasibility,effectiveness and stability of the prediction model.