市政技术2024，Vol.42Issue(7)：54-60,7.DOI:10.19922/j.1009-7767.2024.07.054
基于ARMA模型的隧道变形预测及参数估计分析
Deformation Prediction and Parameter Estimation of the Tunnel Based on ARMA Model
刘君伟 1杨晓辉2
作者信息
- 1. 北京京港地铁有限公司,北京 100068
- 2. 北京市建设工程质量第三检测所有限责任公司,北京 100037||北京市市政工程研究院,北京 100037
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Taking a shantytown renovation project of a subway station in Haidian District,Beijing as an example,the ARMA model is used to predict the deformation of the adjacent existing subway tunnel during the construction pro-cess of the top-down excavation method for high-rise buildings.The real-time monitoring data of the settlement is taken as the original data set to appropriate interpolation process of the original data set.The parameters of the model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation method to give the key parameters of the model,and a reason-able prediction model is constructed.By comparing the model prediction results with the measured data,it is shown that the prediction results are highly consistent with the change trend of the measured data,which fully verifies the feasibility,effectiveness and stability of the prediction model.关键词
地铁隧道/ARMA模型/变形预测/时间序列Key words
metro tunnels/Auto Regressive Moving Average(ARMA)model/deformation prediction/time series分类
交通运输引用本文复制引用
刘君伟,杨晓辉..基于ARMA模型的隧道变形预测及参数估计分析[J].市政技术,2024,42(7):54-60,7.
