现代农业科技Issue(15)：113-119,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1007-5739.2024.15.029
东北地区一次夏季强降雨过程多模式预报与空间检验
Multi-model Forecasting and Spatial Verification of a Summer Heavy Rainfall Process in Northeastern China
崔忠强 1李宏鹏 1黄晓楠 1王传贺 1王智宇 1张彤1
作者信息
摘要
Abstract
The MODE(method for object-based diagnostic evaluation)is a spatial verification method.Using conventional meteorological forecast verification methods and MODE,this paper conducted a detailed evaluation of the 24-hour validity precipitation forecast conclusions of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts global model(ECMWF model)and the China Meteorological Administration Global Forecast System(CMA-GFS model)during the period of August 1st to 5th,2023 in northeastern China.Two typical 24-hour precipitation periods during this rainfall event were selected for evaluation.The results indicated that the CMA-GFS model outperformed the ECMWF model in overall precipitation prediction,particularly in the forecasting of light to moderate rain.However,the ECMWF model demonstrated superior performance in predicting heavy rainfall and above,with higher object similarity in spatial verification.Both models exhibited relatively lower precipitation intensity in 24-hour validity predicting.关键词
强降水/预报检验/数值预报/空间检验/夏季/东北地区/2023年8月1-5日Key words
heavy rainfall/forecast verification/numerical forecast/spatial verification/summer/northeastern China/August 1st to 5th,2023分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
崔忠强,李宏鹏,黄晓楠,王传贺,王智宇,张彤..东北地区一次夏季强降雨过程多模式预报与空间检验[J].现代农业科技,2024,(15):113-119,7.
