安徽医科大学学报2024，Vol.59Issue(6)：1060-1067,8.DOI:10.19405/j.cnki.issn1000-1492.2024.06.023
开发并验证脉络膜黑色素瘤患者总生存和肿瘤特异性生存的预测模型
Develop and validate a predictive model for overall survival and tumor-specific survival in patients with choroidal melanoma
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct nomograms using data extracted from the surveillance,epidemiology,and end results(SEER)program database to predict overall survival(OS)and cancer-specific survival(CSS)for patients with choroidal melanoma(CM),and to evaluate the epidemiological characteristics,survival periods,and prognos-tic factors of CM patients.Methods Data on patients diagnosed with CM from 2010 to 2020 were extracted from the SEER database.The included patients were randomly divided into a training set(n=1,841)and a validation set(n=789)at a 7:3 ratio.Univariate Cox regression analysis was conducted in the training set,followed by in-corporation into a multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model.Independent influencing factors were screened in the multivariate Cox regression model to construct nomograms predicting 3-year and 5-year OS and CSS for CM.Decision curve analysis(DCA)was used to assess the clinical utility of the prediction models by quantif-ying the net benefit of the nomograms in decision-making support,and comparisons were made with the SEER stage model.Individual risk scores were obtained based on the established nomograms.Results A total of 2,630 pa-tients were included in the study.The results indicated that gender,age,liver metastasis,surgery,radiotherapy,and chemotherapy were independent risk factors affecting OS in CM patients.Age,liver metastasis,surgery,and chemotherapy were independent risk factors affecting CSS in CM patients.The nomograms for 3-year and 5-year OS and CSS showed strong discriminative ability.Furthermore,in the validation set for OS and CSS,DCA indicated that the nomograms had good clinical potential.Kaplan-Meier(K-M)curves demonstrated that in both the training and validation sets,patients in the high-risk group had significantly lower OS and CSS rates compared to those in the low-risk group.Conclusion Age,liver metastasis,surgery,and chemotherapy are common predictors of OS and CSS in CM patients.A relatively comprehensive and accurate prognostic nomogram model based on the SEER database has been established.After calibration and further refinement,this nomogram model can be applied clini-cally to guide the treatment and prognosis of patients.关键词
脉络膜黑色素瘤/列线图/总体生存率/癌症特异性生存率Key words
choroidal melanoma/nomogram/overall survival/cancer-specific survival分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
刘栓栓,王少军,李朝辉..开发并验证脉络膜黑色素瘤患者总生存和肿瘤特异性生存的预测模型[J].安徽医科大学学报,2024,59(6):1060-1067,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(编号:81501090) （编号:81501090）
军队后勤科研重点项目(编号:BLB23C003) （编号:BLB23C003）
