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考虑空间异质性特征的城市洪涝动态风险分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

Dynamic risk of urban flooding/waterlogging with attention to spatial heterogeneity of the underlying surface

中文摘要英文摘要

城市洪涝问题给社会稳定和经济发展带来了严峻挑战,准确评估洪涝风险对于提高城市防洪排涝能力至关重要.本文以山西晋城市主城区为例,针对城市空间异质性构建SWICA模型,实现城市洪涝联合模拟,结合多源数据构建风险评估框架,采用主客观综合赋权法,进行不同降雨重现期下洪涝动态风险分析,主要结论如下:1)地下管网排水能力在20 a 一遇重现期降雨时接近饱和,重现期>20 a时管网系统排水能力不足;随着降雨重现期的增大,主城区内危险性区域逐渐增加,多集中于道路、十字路口和开发程度较高的区域.2)主城区东南部区域,降雨量在1~5 a重现期下区域危险性等级的提升较为显著;洪涝高风险范围随重现期的增大而增加,100 a比1 a增加224.614 hm2.3)同一降雨重现期下,高风险和较高风险区域大多集中在主城区中部开发程度较高的区域;主城区东北部植被覆盖较好,高程相对较高,属于低风险区域.

Frequent urban flooding/waterlogging is a major challenge to society and economics.Accurate estimation of flood risk is important to improve urban flood control and drainage capacity,in the downtown area of Jincheng city in Shanxi province.A SWICA model was developed in this work to simulate flooding/waterlogging.A risk assessment framework was proposed from multi-source data,both subjective and objective comprehensive weighting were used,to analyze the dynamic flood risk of various rainfalls with different return periods.The volume of water in the pipeline network was close to capacity with the return period of 20 years,the drainage capacity of the pipeline network system was insufficient when the return period of rainfall was greater than 20 years.With increased rainfall return period,risk areas in downtown was found to gradually increase,mostly concentrated in areas along roads,intersections of street and the area with dense development.In southeastern downtown area,flooding/waterlogging risk increased significantly from 1 to 5 years of return periods.The area with high risk increased significantly with increased return period,by 224.614 hm2 from 1 to 100 years of return period.Under the same return period of rainfall,the area with high and higher risk mostly concentrated in the central downtown area with dense development.With high vegetation coverage and relatively high elevation,the northeastern downtown area was with low risk.

舒心怡;徐宗学;†叶陈雷;廖如婷;黄亦轩;王京晶;贾书惠

北京师范大学水科学研究院,城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京广东省水文局,广东广州中国城市规划设计研究院,北京

水利科学

城市洪涝危险性SWICA动态风险晋城市

urban flooding/waterloggingdangerousSWICAdynamic riskJincheng city

《北京师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 2024 (003)

375-385 / 11

国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(52239003);粤港水安全保障联合实验室开放基金资助项目(GHJLWS-08)

10.12202/j.0476-0301.2023251

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