长江科学院院报2024，Vol.41Issue(7)：148-157,10.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20230139
"阶跃型"滑坡位移监测动态预警系统
Dynamic Warning System of Displacement Monitoring for Step-like Landslide
摘要
Abstract
The step-like evolution of landslide represents the fluctuating behavior of landslides influenced by exter-nal factors during the isokinetic deformation phase.Step-like landslide is characterized by extended deformation cy-cles,intricate mechanisms,and challenges in disaster early-warning.By analyzing the deformation-time curves of step-like landslide,we introduced the concept of"one rainfall process"and defined multiple rainfall intervals in the monitoring sequence.Subsequently,we categorized the warning process into two modes:the previous rainfall-plus the current rainfall pattern,and the current rainfall pattern.With cause-time-space as significant indices for landslide warning,we established a holistic landslide early-warning criterion model,and designed a dynamic early-warning system for Landslide No.1 at Machi Village as a case study.By correlating geological conditions and moni-toring data with a profound analysis of deformation evolution patterns and warning thresholds,we observed that:1)The landslide deformation mode is predominantly traction-related,demonstrating a typical rainfall-triggered step-like behavior.2)The effective early rainfall duration is 10 days.The rainfall thresholds are 24 mm and 32 mm respec-tively under the previous plus current rainfall mode,and 37 mm under the current rainfall mode.3)With the threshold values for rainfall and displacement rate as the Grade Ⅲ yellow early-warning central boundary,we estab-lished a comprehensive dynamic grading early-warning system that transitions from traditional threshold warning to process warning.This shift enhances the precision and efficiency of landslide prediction and management.关键词
"阶跃型"滑坡/滑坡监测/降雨过程/阈值预警/预警系统Key words
step-like landslide/landslide monitoring/rainfall process/threshold warning/early warning system分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
贲琰棋,易武,魏兆亨,周迎,刘伟,邓欣雨.."阶跃型"滑坡位移监测动态预警系统[J].长江科学院院报,2024,41(7):148-157,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(42007237) （42007237）
十堰市自然资源和规划局项目(HBDX21-008) （HBDX21-008）
