考虑台风时空演变的风电容量可信度评估方法OA北大核心CSTPCD

In recent years,the impacts of typhoons on coastal areas have become increasingly severe.To more accurately assess the credible capacity of wind farms during typhoon disasters,a method for evaluating the credibility of wind power capacity during typhoon disasters considering the spatiotemporal impact of typhoons on transmission lines was proposed.First,a spatiotemporal typhoon simulation model was established,and the time-varying failure probabilities of transmission towers and conductors were modeled as functions of the time-varying typhoon intensity.Second,the impact of typhoons on the wind power output was considered,and a wind farm output model was constructed.Subsequently,a time-varying fault probability matrix was calculated based on the transmission line time-varying fault probability models,and the system transmission line fault states were sampled using Monte Carlo methods to generate fault scenarios.The reliability of the power system was quantified using performance indicators.Finally,the credibility of the wind farm capacity during typhoons was assessed using the IEEE RTS-24 benchmark case to validate the feasibility of the proposed method.