电力建设2024，Vol.45Issue(8)：75-84,10.DOI:10.12204/j.issn.1000-7229.2024.08.007
考虑台风时空演变的风电容量可信度评估方法
Reliability Assessment Method of Wind Power Capacity Considering the Spatiotemporal Variation of Typhoons
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,the impacts of typhoons on coastal areas have become increasingly severe.To more accurately assess the credible capacity of wind farms during typhoon disasters,a method for evaluating the credibility of wind power capacity during typhoon disasters considering the spatiotemporal impact of typhoons on transmission lines was proposed.First,a spatiotemporal typhoon simulation model was established,and the time-varying failure probabilities of transmission towers and conductors were modeled as functions of the time-varying typhoon intensity.Second,the impact of typhoons on the wind power output was considered,and a wind farm output model was constructed.Subsequently,a time-varying fault probability matrix was calculated based on the transmission line time-varying fault probability models,and the system transmission line fault states were sampled using Monte Carlo methods to generate fault scenarios.The reliability of the power system was quantified using performance indicators.Finally,the credibility of the wind farm capacity during typhoons was assessed using the IEEE RTS-24 benchmark case to validate the feasibility of the proposed method.关键词
台风/输电线路故障/风电出力/时变故障概率/风电容量可信度Key words
typhoon/transmission line failure/wind power output/time-varying failure probabilities/wind power capacity credibility分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
张金龙,张衡,程浩忠,陆建忠,张啸虎..考虑台风时空演变的风电容量可信度评估方法[J].电力建设,2024,45(8):75-84,10.基金项目
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52307120). 国家自然科学基金资助项目(52307120) （No.52307120）
