南方医科大学学报2024，Vol.44Issue(7)：1407-1415,9.DOI:10.12122/j.issn.1673-4254.2024.07.21
子宫内膜异位症患者新鲜胚胎移植临床妊娠率预测模型的建立与验证
Establishment of a predictive nomogram for clinical pregnancy rate in patients with endometriosis undergoing fresh embryo transfer
摘要
Abstract
Objective To establish a nomogram model for predicting clinical pregnancy rate in patients with endometriosis undergoing fresh embryo transfer.Methods We retrospectively collected the data of 464 endometriosis patients undergoing fresh embryo transfer,who were randomly divided into a training dataset(60%)and a testing dataset(40%).Using univariate analysis,multiple logistic regression analysis,and LASSO regression analysis,we identified the factors associated with the fresh transplantation pregnancy rate in these patients and developed a nomogram model for predicting the clinical pregnancy rate following fresh embryo transfer.We employed an integrated learning approach that combined GBM,XGBOOST,and MLP algorithms for optimization of the model performance through parameter adjustments.Results The clinical pregnancy rate following fresh embryo transfer was significantly influenced by female age,Gn initiation dose,number of assisted reproduction cycles,and number of embryos transferred.The variables included in the LASSO model selection included female age,FSH levels,duration and initial dose of Gn usage,number of assisted reproduction cycles,retrieved oocytes,embryos transferred,endometrial thickness on HCG day,and progesterone level on HCG day.The nomogram demonstrated an accuracy of 0.642(95%CI:0.605-0.679)in the training dataset and 0.652(95%CI:0.600-0.704)in the validation dataset.The predictive ability of the model was further improved using ensemble learning methods and achieved predicative accuracies of 0.725(95%CI:0.680-0.770)in the training dataset and 0.718(95%CI:0.675-0.761)in the validation dataset.Conclusions The established prediction model in this study can help in prediction of clinical pregnancy rates following fresh embryo transfer in patients with endometriosis.关键词
子宫内膜异位症/不孕/临床妊娠率/预测模型/列线图Key words
endometriosis/infertility/clinical pregnancy rate/predictive model/nomogram引用本文复制引用
潘甚豪,李炎坤,伍哲维,毛玉玲,王春艳..子宫内膜异位症患者新鲜胚胎移植临床妊娠率预测模型的建立与验证[J].南方医科大学学报,2024,44(7):1407-1415,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(82101672,82371650) （82101672,82371650）
广州市科技局基础研究计划(2023A04J0578,2023A04J0579,2024A03J0180) （2023A04J0578,2023A04J0579,2024A03J0180）
广州医科大学科研提升计划(2024SRP114) Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(82101672,82371650). （2024SRP114）
