基于两种降水数据的苏巴什水库暴雨山洪淹没模拟及致灾临界雨量阈值研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

This study focuses on the Subash Reservoir area in the Aksu Prefecture,Xinjiang,China,employing various data sources,including merged precipitation,rainfall station,digital elevation model,and land-use data.Using the FloodArea model,a refined simulation of typical torrential rain-induced flood processes in the Subash Reservoir is conducted.By analyzing the inundation depth and runoff volume,and the simulation results of two precipitation data sources are compared,and a precipitation-inundation depth relationship model is established,determining critical rainfall thresholds corresponding to the sediment-flushing gate bottom elevation,flood limit water level,spillway gate weir top elevation,and dam crest elevation.The results reveal that the FloodArea mod-el driven by multi-source precipitation fusion data has higher accuracy and closer approximation to the actual val-ues for the inundation depth and calculated runoff volume in the Subash Reservoir than the model driven by rain gauge precipitation data.The error simulation rates for inundation depth of the two kind of data are 8.59%and 18.67%,respectively.The cumulative 4-hour precipitation thresholds for reaching inundation levels correspond-ing to the sediment-flushing gate bottom elevation,flood limit water level,spillway gate weir top elevation,and dam crest elevation of the Subash Reservoir are 7.1 mm,20.1 mm,32.9 mm,and 44.7 mm,respectively.The re-sults provide a theoretical reference for torrential rain-induced early flood warning in the Subash Reservoir region to enhance the capability of early flood warning for such scenarios.