华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.45Issue(5)：1-14,14.DOI:10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2024048
基于EnKF的水光互补系统适应性调度规则敏感性分析
Sensitivity Analysis of Adaptive Scheduling Rules for Hydro-photovoltaic Hybrid Power Systems Based on Ensemble Kalman Filter
摘要
Abstract
The hydro-photovoltaic(PV)hybrid power system is an important measure to solve the power supply problem,build a low-carbon energy system,and realize the goal of ″dual carbon″.The parameters of linear scheduling function are dynamically updated by ensemble Kalman filter,and the medium and long period adaptive scheduling rules for hydro-PV hybrid power system are constructed.Taking Longyangxia hydro-PV hybrid power station as the research object,three un-certainty parameters,namely,prediction error,observation error and ensemble size,are introduced in the assimilation process.The effects of uncertainty parameter values on the time-varying parameters and operational results of the model are analyzed,and the sensitivity of the parameters is qualitatively analyzed.The results are as follows.Prediction error,obser-vation error and set size have no significant effect on time-varying parameters and operation results of the model,and none of the three are sensitivity parameters.The research results can provide a reference for the uncertainty analysis of ensemble Kalman filter parameters and the study of adaptive scheduling of multi-energy complementary systems.关键词
集合卡尔曼滤波/水光互补/变化环境/适应性调度/敏感性分析Key words
ensemble Kalman filter/hydro-photovoltaic hybrid power systems/changing environment/adaptive operation/sensitivity analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
李赫,张圣杰,丁雨婷,左其亭..基于EnKF的水光互补系统适应性调度规则敏感性分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,45(5):1-14,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52209037) （52209037）
中国博士后科学基金项目(2022M722880,2023T160595) （2022M722880,2023T160595）
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(23A570002). （23A570002）
