基于BP神经网络和三次样条插值法的感潮河段水位预报OA

A water level prediction method for tidal river sections on the outer river side of Changshu Water Conservancy Hub is proposed based on a combination of BP neural network and cubic spline interpolation.The results show that when the forecast period for tidal level forecast is 1 day and 2 days,the absolute errors of the model are 0.06 m and 0.18 m,respectively,and the qualification rates are 87.5%and 70.9%,meeting the requirements for issuing formal forecasts as stipulated in the"Hydrological Information Forecasting Specification";When the forecast period is 3 days,the absolute error and qualification rate of the model are 0.28 m and 61.4%,respectively,meeting the reference forecast requirements.When the forecast period for water level is 1 day,the absolute error of the model is 0.07 m,which is suitable for the refined scheduling of the hub;When the forecast period is 2 days and 3 days,the absolute errors of the model are 0.13 m and 0.18 m,respectively,which can provide water level information reference for the operation of the hub.