空间科学学报2024，Vol.44Issue(3)：425-436,12.DOI:10.11728/cjss2024.03.2023-0121
F10.7指数与Ap指数短期预报检验
Verification of Short-term Forecast for F10.7 Index and Ap Index
摘要
Abstract
The National Center for Space Weather(NCSW)has been providing space weather fore-casts for the next 24 h,48 h and 72 h since 1 July 2004.In this paper,the average error,the average ab-solute error,the skill score,the median error and the interquartile range of error are used to verify the F10.7 index and Ap index forecasted by NCSW from 2005 to 2022.It was found that the F10.7 index fore-casted by NCSW for the next 24 h,48 h,and 72 h are usually smaller than the observed F10.7 index;the Ap index for the next 24 h is usually higher than the observed Ap index,while Ap index forecasted for the next 48 h and 72 h are usually lower than the observed Ap index.The higher the level of solar activi-ty,the greater the forecast error of the F10.7 index is.However,the maximum forecast error of the Ap in-dex occurs in the declining period of solar activity.In addition,we compared the forecasts of NCSW with the simple statistical models such as the persistence model,14 days recurrence model,14 days cor-rected recurrence model,27 days recurrence model,and 27 days corrected recurrence model,and found that the forecast performance of NCSW is usually better than that of five simple statistical models.For the F10.7 index,the forecast performance of NCSW is slightly better than that of the persistence model,and significantly better than that of the four recurrence models.However,when the solar activity level is high,the persistence model's performance of the F10.7 index for the next 72 h is better than that of NC-SW.For the Ap index,in most cases,the performance of NCSW is significantly better than that of sta-tistical models.However,when geomagnetic disturbances are severe,the Ap index forecasted by the 27 days recurrence model is more accurate than that forecasted by NCSW.关键词
空间天气/预报检验/F10.7指数/Ap指数Key words
Space weather/Forecast verification/F10.7 index/Ap index分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈安芹,李沐,郭建广,刘丹丹,唐伟,赵海娟..F10.7指数与Ap指数短期预报检验[J].空间科学学报,2024,44(3):425-436,12.基金项目
中国科学院空间科学战略性先导科技专项(XDA15350203)和国家自然科学基金项目(42004144)共同资助 （XDA15350203）
