空间科学学报2024，Vol.44Issue(3)：437-445,9.DOI:10.11728/cjss2024.03.2023-0107
基于神经网络的未来3天Kp指数预报建模与可解释AI应用
Modeling Next 3-day Kp Index Forecasting with Neural Networks and Exploring the Application of Explainable AI
摘要
Abstract
The current operational needs of space weather forecasting strongly require accurate predic-tions of the future 3-day Kp index.Such forecasts involve a multitude of predictors,including physical parameters observed at the Earth-Sun L1 point and historical characteristics of the Kp index.Therefore,previous research primarily relied on statistical or empirical methods for prediction.However,the com-plex coupling of multiple parameters during geomagnetic storm events has made it challenging to quanti-fy the contributions of various predictors to Kp index forecasting over a 3-day timescale,hindering fur-ther improvements in forecast accuracy.This study builds a 3-day Kp index forecasting model based on neural network modeling and utilizes explainable AI(Artificial Intelligence)algorithm,specifically the in-tegrated gradient algorithm,to quantify the contributions of individual predictor.The research results indicate that the southward interplanetary magnetic field contributes significantly to Kp index predic-tion,accounting for 37.15%of all factors,making it the primary contributor.Following this,solar wind speed contributes 15.73%,underscoring the model's ability to capture parameters aligned with physical characteristics as the primary predictive factors during training.The contribution of historical character-istics of Kp index(recurrence characteristics)gradually increases with the forecasting horizon and reach-es 68.06%at a lead time of 3-day.This substantiates the strong predictive capabilities of the AI model in forecasting geomagnetic storm events induced by high-speed solar wind streams originating from coronal holes.Furthermore,this study conducts contribution analysis on two significant geomagnetic storm events that occurred in 2015 and 2017.It reveals that the predominant predictors contributing to each event differ.This underscores the model's capability to accurately capture the complex coupling of multi-ple parameters in geomagnetic storm forecasting.In conclusion,this research demonstrates that employ-ing explainable AI algorithms can help quantify the contributions of various predictive factors to Kp in-dex forecasting to some extent.This has the potential to enhance further research and improvements in 3-day Kp index AI forecasting models.关键词
地磁暴/未来3天Kp指数预报/神经网络/可解释性AI算法Key words
Geomagnetic storm/3-day Kp index forecasting/Neural network/Explainable AI algorithm分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王听雨,罗冰显,陈艳红,石育榕,王晶晶,刘四清..基于神经网络的未来3天Kp指数预报建模与可解释AI应用[J].空间科学学报,2024,44(3):437-445,9.基金项目
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDB0560000),国家自然科学基金面上项目(42074224),中国科学院重点部署项目(ZDRE-KT-2021-3),中国科学院国家空间科学中心"攀登计划"青年创新课题(E4PD40012S)和中国科学院青年创新促进会共同资助 （XDB0560000）
