林业经济问题2024，Vol.44Issue(2)：218-224,7.DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.20240042
全球木质林产品贸易网络的韧性研究
Study on the Resilience of Global Trade Network of Wood Forest Products
摘要
Abstract
⑴Background——In order to ensure the supplysafety of the wood forest products in China,it is necessary to study the resistance and resilience of the global trade network of wood forest products to cope with the impact.By comparing the resilience characteristics of the trade networks of resource-based wood forest products and deep-processed wood forest products,it is helpful to formulate targeted policies and risks coping strategies for wood for-est products trade,so as to ensure the safety of China's wood forest products supply and demand and the sustain-able development of global wood forest products trade in the future. ⑵ Methods——This paper firstly analyzed the resilience of the trade network of wood forest products stati-callyaccording to three indicators of network density,average clustering coefficients and average path length,and then analyzed the resilience of the trade network of wood forest products dynamically by using the interruption simulation technique.The resilience of the trade network of resource-based wood forest products and deep-pro-cessed wood forest products was compared from the static and dynamic aspects by using the data from the UN-Comtrade Database,and the changing characteristics under different attack conditions were obtained.Finally,this paper discussed the ability of two kinds of trade networks of wood forest products to withstand the shocks. ⑶ Results——The number of nodes in the trade of resource-based wood forest products and deep-pro-cessed wood forest products gradually increases.The density value of the global trade network of wood forest prod-ucts is relatively low.However,the density values show a steady growth trend.From the perspective of aggrega-tion,the degree of aggregation within the trade network of wood forest products is gradually increasing and tends towards collectivization,which helps to enhance the ability of wood forest products network to resist risks.Coun-tries with rich trade links often also play an important role as the transit points for trade.Compared with other commodities,the trade networks of resource－based and deep-processed wood forest products are relatively fragile in terms of resilience.The core nodes of the trade network of wood forest products are more important,and when these core countries are attacked,the performance of the trade network declines faster,and the trade network is difficult to recover.Compared with the trade network of resource-based wood forest products,the trade network of deep-processed wood forest products not only performs better in connectivity,transitivity and aggregation,but also shows higher recovery efficiency and maintenance ability after the shocks,but it is inferior to the trade net-work of resource-based wood forest products in anti－interference.Of all the negative factors for trade in wood for-est products,deliberate attacks,such as trade disputes and political conflicts between major powers,outweigh random factors such as natural disasters and supply chain disruptions. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The resilience of the trade network of resource-based wood forest products is much lower than that of the trade network of deep-processed wood forest products.The transitivity of the trade network of wood forest products is good,which will help to improve the efficiency of the trade network.The trade network of deep-processed wood forest products has higher recovery efficiency,but it is inferior to the trade network of resource-based wood forest products in anti-interference.In terms of network efficiency,the im-portance of nodes is far greater than that of edges,and the importance of maintaining the stability of trade of wood forest products between participating countries is far greater than maintaining trade relations between the two countries.Therefore,it is necessary to promote the resilience construction of the trade network of wood forest products and ensure the reliability of network nodes,optimize the structure of the trade network of wood forest products and ensure the substitution of network nodes,and strengthen cooperation among trading countries and develop contingency plans to guard against trade network risks.关键词
木质林产品/贸易网络/韧性分析Key words
wood forest products/trade network/resilience analysis分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘林,陈焱,俞君,孙莹..全球木质林产品贸易网络的韧性研究[J].林业经济问题,2024,44(2):218-224,7.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(21BJY222) （21BJY222）
