煤气与热力2024，Vol.44Issue(7)：1-6,6.
燃气日负荷预测中温度累积效应的分析
Analysis of Cumulative Effect of Temperature in Daily Gas Load Prediction
摘要
Abstract
The relationship between the histori-cal daily gas load and temperature is analyzed,and the characteristics of cumulative effect of temperature on daily gas load are studied.A temperature correction model for predicting daily gas load is proposed based on the cumulative effect of temperature.According to the principle of correlation,a solution method for boundary temperature and maximum cumulative time of influence is proposed,and the temperature is corrected by solving the cumulative effect coefficient of tempera-ture.After temperature correction,the maximum rela-tive error between the predicted daily load and the ac-tual daily gas load decreases,and the average absolute percentage error also decreases,indicating that the method of temperature correction based on cumulative effect of temperature can effectively improve the predic-tion accuracy of daily gas load.关键词
温度累积效应/短期负荷预测/燃气日负荷预测/修正温度/BP神经网络Key words
cumulative effect of temperature/short-term load prediction/daily gas load prediction/temperature correction/BP neural network分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
徐鹏,张飞龙,杜景勃,郑小兵..燃气日负荷预测中温度累积效应的分析[J].煤气与热力,2024,44(7):1-6,6.基金项目
内蒙古自治区科技重大专项(2021ZD0038) （2021ZD0038）
