可再生能源2024，Vol.42Issue(7)：923-928,6.
基于混合自适应核密度估计的风电波动特性分析
Analysis of wind power fluctuation characteristics based on hybrid adaptive kernel density estimation
摘要
Abstract
The analysis and mastery of the inner law of the fluctuation characteristics of wind power output is conducive to improving the prediction accuracy of wind power output,thus guiding the power grid scheduling department to reasonably arrange the power generation plan and improve the economy of system operation.To characterize the probability density distribution of wind power output fluctuations,two adaptive bandwidth kernel density estimation models are developed by modifying the fixed bandwidths obtained from the empirical method and the unbiased cross-validation method.Then,the above two models are combined and optimized,and finally the probability density distribution model of wind power output fluctuation based on hybrid adaptive kernel density estimation(HAKDE)is established.A variety of probability density distribution models were used to fit the fluctuations of wind power output at different spatial and temporal scales in a province in North China.The results show that the fitting effect of the HAKDE model is the best,which verifies the effectiveness of the HAKDE model.关键词
核密度估计/风电/波动特性/概率密度分布/多时空尺度Key words
kernel density estimation/wind power/fluctuation characteristics/probability density distribution/multi-temporal scales分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
李立新,田旭,刘飞,张君,张祥成,张鑫,李媛媛..基于混合自适应核密度估计的风电波动特性分析[J].可再生能源,2024,42(7):923-928,6.基金项目
国网青海省电力公司经济技术研究院科技项目(SGQHJY00GHJS220052). （SGQHJY00GHJS220052）
