南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.48Issue(4)：235-242,8.DOI:10.12302/j.issn.1000-2006.202212007
四种气候变化情景下中国樱桃的潜在适生区预测
Prediction of potential suitable regions of Prunus pseudocerasus based on MaxEnt model under climate change
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Prunus pseudocerasus,one of the oldest cultivated species in China,is the focus of this study which predicts its suitable growth regions currently and in the future.This serves as a reference for understanding its growth habits and enhancing its cultivation.[Method]The MaxEnt model simulated the distribution of potential suitable areas for P.pseudocerasus under four climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP370 and SSP585)at different times.This was based on geographic and environmental climate data.Important climatic variables influencing these areas were identified,and changes in potential suitable regions were analyzed.[Result]The accuracy of the predictions was validated using ROC analysis,achieving a high score of 0.936.Key climatic factors included annual precipitation,minimum temperature of the coldest month,and mean temperature of the warmest quarter.Soil factors did not significantly limit the distribution of P.pseudocerasus.Currently,suitable areas are primarily in the eastern,central and southwest China,with highly suitable regions in central and eastern Shandong,and southern Shaanxi.Climate change is expected to reduce these areas while creating new suitable regions in central Xizang and eastern Jilin.[Conclusion]Under future climate change scenarios,the potential suitable areas for P.pseudocerasus will become fragmented and shift towards higher latitudes and altitudes.These findings provide a theoretical basis for the conservation and industrial development of P.pseudocerasus in China.关键词
中国樱桃/潜在适生区/种质资源保护/MaxEnt模型Key words
Prunus pseudocerasus/potential suitable regions/protection of germplasm resources/MaxEnt model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
付陈龙,李蒙,田昌芬,宋炎峰,伊贤贵,王贤荣..四种气候变化情景下中国樱桃的潜在适生区预测[J].南京林业大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,48(4):235-242,8.基金项目
江苏省科学技术厅现代农业重点项目(BE2020343). （BE2020343）
