农业机械学报2024，Vol.55Issue(7)：345-356,385,13.DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2024.07.034
区域粮食虚拟水流动经济社会影响效应分析
Analysis of Socio-economic Driving Effect of Regional Grain Virtual Water Flow
摘要
Abstract
Virtual water flow is an important manifestation of spatial redistribution of water resources.As a carrier of virtual water,grain trade and transportation involve virtual water flow.China's population and resources show obvious spatial dislocation with food production,and the spatial matching degree of virtual water flow pattern,distribution of land and water resources,and economic and social development is poor.Based on exploring the resource and environment effect of virtual water flow in the current stage,adding the impact effect analysis on economy and society can further optimize resource allocation and promote regional sustainable development.The spatiotemporal evolution pattern of virtual water flow in 31 provinces of China from 1997 to 2021 was analyzed.Spacetime clustering analysis and coupled analysis of virtual water-economic and social data clarified the existence of significant spatial clustering of grain virtual water transportation.The amount of virtual water transportation in the main input and output provinces of food virtual water showed a significant positive correlation with the economic and social development level.Based on this background,totally nine major economic and social impact factors were selected and their spatial differences in influencing food virtual water flow were explored.The types of impact effect on food virtual water flow in 31 provinces of China were classified into industrial correlation type,social correlation type,and resource correlation type.Relevant regulatory strategies were proposed according to the economic development level,natural resource endowment,and industrial structure development of each province to weaken or even avoid the negative impact of virtual water flow on the regional economic and social development and natural environment.The results showed that the overall virtual water flow presented a trend of flowing from"deficient"northern regions to"rich"southern regions,and from economic backward areas to economic developed areas.The economic and social system to some extent influenced the virtual water flow.According to the impact effect of economic and social factors on food virtual water flow in different provinces,the industrial,social,and resource correlation types of food virtual water flow in each province were classified into industrial correlation type,social correlation type,and resource correlation type.In summary,promoting regional coordinated development and optimizing industrial structure would be an important solution to address the negative feedback effects of food virtual water flow in China caused by environmental and economic factors.关键词
粮食虚拟水流动/区域社会经济差异/灰色关联度分析/集对分析/影响效应分析Key words
grain virtual water flow/regional socio-economic differences/grey correlation analysis/set pair analysis/influence effect analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
佟佳骏,孙世坤,马佳乐,阴亚丽,王玉宝,沈欣,许纪元..区域粮食虚拟水流动经济社会影响效应分析[J].农业机械学报,2024,55(7):345-356,385,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51979230、52122903)、博士后创新人才支持计划项目(BX20220255)和博士后科学基金面上项目(2022M712605) （51979230、52122903）
