排灌机械工程学报2024，Vol.42Issue(8)：778-784,817,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8530.22.0197
风电场功率预测的研究进展及发展趋势
Research progress and development trend of wind farm power prediction
摘要
Abstract
Wind power prediction can effectively help balance the power supply and load demand of a system,thereby reducing the impact of wind power fluctuations and uncertainty on the stability of the power system.As the proportion of wind power connected to the power system increases,how to accu-rately predict the power generation of wind farms has become a major challenge,which will affect the grid-connected operation of wind farms.The research progress of domestic and foreign scholars in wind farm power prediction in recent years was systematically summarized.Firstly,a variety of wind power prediction methods according to the classification criteria of time scale,prediction physical quantity,prediction principle,and prediction characteristics was classified and sorted out.The research status of various prediction methods was summarized,its characteristics and application scenarios were ex-plained,and a reference for the selection of prediction models was provided.Then,the evaluation indi-cators of the prediction effect were summarized from the perspectives of single-point prediction,proba-bility prediction and prediction curve,and some suggestions were given on the selection of evaluation indicators.Finally,the key problems affecting the accuracy and practicability of wind farm power pre-diction were summarized,and the possible development trends of wind farm power prediction in the fu-ture were proposed,which provided a reference for the accurate prediction of wind farm power and the stable grid-connected operation of the power grid.关键词
风电场/功率预测/评价指标/研究进展/发展趋势Key words
wind farm/power prediction/evaluation index/research progress/development trend分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
李根银,郁冶,王异成,何嘉桦,王强,罗坤,樊建人..风电场功率预测的研究进展及发展趋势[J].排灌机械工程学报,2024,42(8):778-784,817,8.基金项目
浙江浙能国电投嵊泗海上风力发电有限公司科技项目(ZNKJ-2021-080) （ZNKJ-2021-080）
浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(LY24E060002) （LY24E060002）
