全球能源互联网2024，Vol.7Issue(4)：393-405,13.DOI:10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2024.04.005
基于双重注意力变换模型的分布式屋顶光伏变电站级日前功率预测
Substation-level Distributed Rooftop Photovoltaic Power Day-ahead Prediction Based on Double Attention Mechanism Transformer Model
摘要
Abstract
Distributed rooftop photovoltaic(PV)is spread geographically and affected by geographic shading and weather factors.It causes differences in distributed PV power output characteristics,making it challenging to predict distributed rooftop PV power at the substation level accurately.This paper proposes a day-ahead power prediction method of distributed rooftop PV based on a double attention mechanism-transformer model.Firstly,the similarity between the output characteristics of distributed PV users is determined using the dynamic time warping method and classified using the agglomerative hierarchical clustering approach.Secondly,the self-attention mechanism is used to learn the temporal correlation characteristics between each time step,and the channel convolution attention mechanism learns the correlation between multiple feature variables,and a day-ahead power prediction model is constructed.Finally,the day-ahead prediction results of each class are summed up to achieve the day-ahead power prediction at the substation level.The example results show that the proposed method in this paper significantly improves the prediction accuracy compared with Transformer,long short-term memory neural network,and time series convolution network under various weather conditions.关键词
日前功率预测/动态时间规整/凝聚层次聚类/双重注意力变换模型Key words
day-ahead power prediction/dynamic time warping/agglomerative hierarchical clustering/double attention mechanism-transformer分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王光华,张纪欣,崔良,薛书倩,张彬,张沛..基于双重注意力变换模型的分布式屋顶光伏变电站级日前功率预测[J].全球能源互联网,2024,7(4):393-405,13.基金项目
国网河北省电力有限公司科技项目:含高比例分布式光伏的多级电网负荷预测方法研究及应用(KJ2022-051). State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co.,Ltd.Science and Technology Project:Research and Application of Multi-level Power Grid Load Forecasting Method with High Proportion of Distributed Photovoltaics(KJ2022-051). （KJ2022-051）
