气象科学2024，Vol.44Issue(3)：593-602,10.DOI:10.12306/2024jms.0002
南京市日最高气温对支气管和心血管类疾病就诊人数的影响
Effect of daily maximum temperature on the number of patients with bronchial and cardiovascular diseases in Nanjing
摘要
Abstract
Combining the Distributed Lag Non-linear Model(DLNM)and the Generalized Additive Model(GAM),based on controlling the impacts of the COVID-19,holiday effect,week effect,long-term trend,air pollution factors and other mixed factors,this study explored the exposure response relationship between the daily maximum temperature in Nanjing and the number of local patients with bronchial and cardiovascular diseases from 2018 to 2020,including the lag effect and cumulative effect.Results indicate that for bronchial diseases,winter is a high-risk period,and the immediate and cumulative effects of low temperature are significant;under the short-term cumulative effect,the lower the temperature,the greater the danger;under long-term accumulation,the danger is the highest at around 10 ℃;the cumulative effect of high temperature is not significant,and the hysteresis effect is significant around 30 ℃.For cardiovascular diseases,the immediate and cumulative effects of low temperature are significant,with the cumulative and sustained effects being the strongest around 11-12℃;the hysteresis effect of high temperature is significant,and the higher the temperature,the more pronounced the hysteresis effect;the risk of illness increases rapidly when exposed to high temperature environments for a long time,with the cumulative risk of exposure being highest at around 32 ℃ per day.For these two types of diseases,the highest temperature on the day ranges from 22 to 24 ℃,which is the most comfortable temperature for the human body.关键词
日最高气温/心血管类疾病/支气管类疾病/滞后效应/累积效应Key words
daily maximum temperature/cardiovascular diseases/bronchial diseases/hysteresis effect/cumulative effect分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
单婵,王子昕,王雁君,桑小卓,姚阮,艾文文..南京市日最高气温对支气管和心血管类疾病就诊人数的影响[J].气象科学,2024,44(3):593-602,10.基金项目
中国气象局公共气象服务中心创新基金项目(M2023007) （M2023007）
