热带气象学报2024，Vol.40Issue(3)：436-444,9.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.039
近海台风活动与陕西秋淋天气先兆性特征分析及试报
Precursory Signals for Autumn Rain in Shaanxi Province:An Analysis and Hindcast Experiment with a Focus on Offshore Typhoons
摘要
Abstract
Based on the analysis of the characteristics of strong autumn rain in Shaanxi and typhoon activities along the southeast coast of China since 1970,it is found that the typhoon activities west of 125 °E in the western Pacific Ocean exhibited certain precursory signals that could be linked to the strong autumn rain in Shaanxi.Results show that typhoon activities provided favorable climatic background for autumn precipitation in the years with heavy autumn rain in Shaanxi.During the same period,typhoon paths were mainly westward or northwestward,and the landing locations of typhoons affected the areas where autumn rain mostly occurred in Shaanxi.Based on the precursory signals exhibited by offshore typhoons and the temporal variation and periodicity of autumn precipitation in Shaanxi,a trial hindcast of autumn rain from 2017 to 2022 in Shaanxi was conducted,and the results were relatively satisfactory.This method may serve as an objective climate prediction method for the forecast of strong autumn precipitation in Shaanxi.关键词
秋淋天气/近海台风/演变特征/环流分析/预测和检验Key words
autumn precipitation/offshore typhoon/variation characteristics/circulation analysis/prediction and evaluation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杜莉丽,毛明策,陈小婷,徐嘉,祁春娟,侯建忠..近海台风活动与陕西秋淋天气先兆性特征分析及试报[J].热带气象学报,2024,40(3):436-444,9.基金项目
陕西省重点研发计划社会发展领域项目(2021SF-477) （2021SF-477）
陕西省重点研发计划社会发展领域项目(2024SF-YBXM-556) （2024SF-YBXM-556）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2022J023)共同资助 （CXFZ2022J023）
