摘要
Abstract
In order to understand the composition of aquatic product production in Shanghai and predict the future output trend,the gray correlation analysis was carried out based on the fishery statistics of Shanghai from 2009 to 2022,and the gray prediction model was constructed to predict the output of total aquatic products,freshwater aquaculture,offshore fishing and distant-water fishing in Shanghai from 2025 to 2027.The results showed that the total output of aquatic products in Shanghai from 2009 to 2022 was 227 800 to 330 500 tons,with an average of 281 000 tons.After 2014,the overall trend has been declining.The aquaculture yields ranged from 67 700 to 162 500 tons,with an average of 128 200 tons,while fishing yields ranged from 127 200 to 196 700 tons,with an average of 152 900 tons.The aquaculture production from 2010 to 2013 was greater than the capture production,and the aquaculture production from 2014 to 2022 was less than the capture production.The grey correlation between total aquatic product production and aquaculture production and capture production was 0.615 5 and 0.648 2,respectively.The main species affecting freshwater aquaculture and capture production were fish and crustaceans.The prediction results of the GM(1,1)model based on the fishery statistics of Shanghai from 2018 to 2022 show that the total output of aquatic products in Shanghai will decrease slightly in the next few years.The total output of aquatic products is predicted to be 224 000-236 000 tons from 2025 to 2027,among which the freshwater aquaculture output is 128 000-160 000 tons,the offshore fishing output is 6 000-7 000 tons,and the distant-water fishing output is 70 000-90 000 tons.关键词
水产品产量/灰色关联/灰色预测/上海市Key words
aquatic production/grey correlation/grey forecast/Shanghai
