水力发电学报2024，Vol.43Issue(7)：14-29,16.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20240702
佳芦河流域设计年径流和设计洪水的广义可加模型
Generalized additive models for design annual runoff and design flood in Jialu River basin
摘要
Abstract
The consistency of runoff sequences is often broken due to meteorological changes and human activities,and a direct study of non-consistent hydrological sequences becomes necessary.This paper presents a new method for estimating the design annual runoff and peak flood flow of non-stationary series for the Jialu River basin in the loess plateau based on Generalized Additive Model for Location,Scale and Shape(GAMLSS),using the average design life level method(ADLL)and equivalent reliability method(ER),and selecting air temperature,precipitation and the controlling river basin area of the reservoir and dam as covariates in simulation analysis.The results show that the two hydrological sequences are non-consistent,the developed multi-covariate annual runoff model gives good fitting to the low and high quantile curves,and the flood peak model has achieved satisfactory simulation results.Application of GAMLSS and the corresponding ADLL and ER methods provides higher accuracy of design peak flood and design annual runoff in a specific return period or probability interval,and thus the method better estimates the influence of the hydrological sequence trend on the design values.关键词
径流序列/黄土高原/非一致性/平均设计寿命水平/广义可加模型Key words
runoff sequences/loess plateau/non-consistency/average design life level/generalized additive model for location,scale and shape分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
莫淑红,杨金来,梁伟佳,张高锋,吕婧妤..佳芦河流域设计年径流和设计洪水的广义可加模型[J].水力发电学报,2024,43(7):14-29,16.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52179024 （）
U2040208) （）
中国电建集团西北勘测设计院有限公司重大科技项目(XBY-ZDKJ-2020-01) （XBY-ZDKJ-2020-01）
