水利工程施工的IT2FS-MARCOS风险评价OA北大核心CSTPCD

This paper develops a new risk assessment method for the construction of water conservancy projects based on the IT2FS-MARCOS method to tackle the uncertainty of risk assessment caused by the subjectivity of expert decision-making and to solve the problem of multiple risk factors under different risk parameter weights.First,a risk index evaluation system of water conservancy project construction is determined,and the weight of each risk parameter is analyzed using a weighting method that combines the best-worst method(BWM)and the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC).Then,interval type-2 fuzzy sets(IT2FS)are applied in multi-criteria decision-making to improve the measurement of alternatives and ranking to compromise solution(MARCOS),which calculates the utility function values of each risk factor;risk factors are examined and evaluated based on these values.Finally,through application to engineering cases,we verified certain risk factors are highly dangerous,such as geology,weather conditions,and operation plan arrangement. Among them,geological condition is the most threatening to the safety of construction projects,a risk factor that needs to be managed carefully. The results show that this new method not only considers the fuzziness of expert evaluation,but also is able to avoid simple weighting of risk parameters by adopting a multi-criteria decision-making method. Compared with the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method,our method gives a higher degree of fitting to the real engineering cases,and a new idea for risk assessment under information uncertainty of the projects.