水力发电学报2024，Vol.43Issue(7)：109-120,12.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20240710
水利工程施工的IT2FS-MARCOS风险评价
IT2FS-MARCOS method for risk assessment of water conservancy engineering construction
摘要
Abstract
This paper develops a new risk assessment method for the construction of water conservancy projects based on the IT2FS-MARCOS method to tackle the uncertainty of risk assessment caused by the subjectivity of expert decision-making and to solve the problem of multiple risk factors under different risk parameter weights.First,a risk index evaluation system of water conservancy project construction is determined,and the weight of each risk parameter is analyzed using a weighting method that combines the best-worst method(BWM)and the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC).Then,interval type-2 fuzzy sets(IT2FS)are applied in multi-criteria decision-making to improve the measurement of alternatives and ranking to compromise solution(MARCOS),which calculates the utility function values of each risk factor;risk factors are examined and evaluated based on these values.Finally,through application to engineering cases,we verified certain risk factors are highly dangerous,such as geology,weather conditions,and operation plan arrangement. Among them,geological condition is the most threatening to the safety of construction projects,a risk factor that needs to be managed carefully. The results show that this new method not only considers the fuzziness of expert evaluation,but also is able to avoid simple weighting of risk parameters by adopting a multi-criteria decision-making method. Compared with the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method,our method gives a higher degree of fitting to the real engineering cases,and a new idea for risk assessment under information uncertainty of the projects.关键词
水利工程施工/风险评价/BWM-CRITIC组合赋权法/区间2型模糊集/多准则决策/IT2FS-MARCOS法Key words
hydraulic engineering construction/risk assessment/BWM-CRITIC combination weighting method/interval type-2 fuzzy set/multiple criteria decision making/IT2FS-MARCOS分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
孙开畅,薛文丽,李婷婷,陈千庆..水利工程施工的IT2FS-MARCOS风险评价[J].水力发电学报,2024,43(7):109-120,12.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0805100) （2017YFC0805100）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(52179136) （52179136）
