基于多参数优化地理探测器的山洪灾害驱动力分析及风险评价OA北大核心CSTPCD

[Objective]Datong City is located in the northeast edge of Loess Plateau,and the frequent underground mining activi-ties in the region aggravate the flash flood disaster,which seriously threatens people's life and property safety.In order to reveal the main driving forces of flash flood disaster in this region and evaluate its risk,[Methods]based on the result of the flash flood disasters investigation and evaluation project in Datong City,multi-scale grids were sampled and optimal geographical detector was used to discretize continuous driving factors optimally.The explanatory power of the driving factors of flash flood disasters and the average hazard level of each driving factor were calculated.Finally,a quantitative risk assessment was conducted based on the obtained explanatory power and hazard level.[Results]The result show that:Rainfall is the primary factor inducing flash floods(q=0.0888),followed by human activities(q=0.0618)and the surface environment is the weakest(q=0.0227).Among the selected rainfall indicators,6 h heavy rainfall has the strongest average explanatory power(q=0.1412)for the occur-rence of flash floods in Datong City,which can be taken into account in the further study of critical rainfall for flash floods.In Datong City,the risk level of flash floods disaster is high,the area of medium and above risk areas accounts for more than 3/5,and the density of disaster points in high risk areas is 0.0385/km2.[Conclusion]The optimization of grid scale and discrete mode can effectively improve the interpretation power of Geographic Detector analysis result.Short-duration(<6 h)heavy rain-fall,if not sustained,the induced intensity of flash floods disaster is greatly reduced.Overall,the risk level of flash floods in Da-tong City is relatively high,and they are mainly concentrated in areas with lower vulnerability levels.The result of the study can provide a reference for quantitatively evaluating the riskiness of flash floods,and provide a certain scientific basis for flash flood prevention and control zoning in Datong City.