辽宁省旱涝急转特征与趋势研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

[Objective]The abrupt transition of drought and flood has a high degree of suddenness and disaster.The characteris-tics and trend of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Liaoning Province are clarified,and the basis is provided for the early warning of drought and flood disaster and the emergency management of water resources in Liaoning Province.[Methods]The index of drought-flood abrupt alternation is the basis of the research of drought-flood abrupt alternation.Based on the precipitation data of 19 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from 1970 to 2020,the spatial and temporal characteristics were analyzed by using the long-period and short-period drought-flood transition indexes(LDFAI and SDFAI),and the similarities and differences of drought-flood rapid transition indexes were pointed out to realize the quantitative identification of drought-flood rapid transition events in Liaoning Province.[Results]The result show that:(1)The overall trend of LDFAI and SDFAI in Liaoning Province from 1970 to 2020 is increasing,and the risk of drought to flood in Liaoning Province is gradually increasing in the future.(2)The probability of drought and flooding in Liaoning Province is spatially differentiated and is closely related to the unequal distri-bution of precipitation in Liaoning Province.(3)The magnitude of change in the center of gravity of the SDFAI is significantly larger than that of the LDFAI,and the migration centers of LDFAI and SDFAI are mainly concentrated in Panjin,Anshan,and Yingkou in the central part of Liaoning Province.[Conclusion]On the whole,the phenomenon of abrupt change of drought and flood occurred frequently in Liaoning province,and the intensity increased year by year.The research result can provide a theo-retical reference for Liaoning Province to scientifically respond to drought and flood disasters and improve the ability of water resources emergency management.