基于代谢理论的城市群水资源承载力综合评价OA北大核心CSTPCD

[Objective]The sustainable development of urban agglomerations in China has brought forth significant challenges,nota-bly concerning water scarcity and the uneven spatial-temporal distribution of water resources.The concept of water resources carry-ing capacity holds profound theoretical and practical implications for ensuring the sustainability of urban agglomerations.[Meth-ods]Rooted in the regional water resources metabolism theory,an evaluation index system is established that thoroughly considers regional water resource characteristics,socio-economic system features,and principles of sustainable development.The TOPSIS method is employed to compute the Water Resources Carrying Capacity(WRCC)index of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglom-eration(BTHUA)in 2019.Through a comprehensive analysis of the current state of regional water resources,recommendations for enhancing regional water resources carrying capacity are provided.[Results]The result indicate that the overall WRCC index of BTHUA in 2019 is moderate.Beijing(0.5612),Tianjin(0.5306),and Tangshan(0.4075)exhibit relatively higher scores,suggesting a medium WRCC with potential for further development.However,Shijiazhuang(0.3843),Qinhuangdao(0.3165),Hengshui(0.2952),Chengde(0.2935),and Xingtai(0.2674)fall within the medium scores,with WRCC nearing critical val-ues and limited development potential.Conversely,Langfang(0.2214),Handan(0.2188),Zhangjiakou(0.2115),Baoding(0.2086),and Cangzhou(0.2026)exhibit the lowest scores,with WRCC nearing its upper limit and very limited potential for further development.[Conclusion]The study concludes that:(1)Material flow analysis indicates a pessimistic outlook on the wa-ter production capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,implying insufficient potential for water resources development.(2)So-cietal scale in BTHUA has already surpassed the water resources carrying capacity,with anticipated further expansion in the future.(3)Except for Beijing,Tianjin,and Qinhuangdao,the ecological water usage percentage of other cities fails to meet the standard at the ecosystem level.By offering a comprehensive assessment of water resources carrying capacity,this study provides valuable in-sights for formulating scientifically sound and sustainable water resources development strategies,along with recommendations for water resources utilization policies and future socio-economic development endeavors.