饲料研究2024，Vol.47Issue(13)：184-188,5.DOI:10.13557/j.cnki.issn1002-2813.2024.13.034
产业链视角下的肉牛价格波动及其成因分析
Analysis on fluctuation and causes of beef cattle price from perspective of industrial chain
摘要
Abstract
Based on the perspective of the industrial chain,this article examines the fluctuation of beef cattle prices and its causes,aiming to stabilize the market price of beef cattle and promote the high-quality development of the livestock industry.Based on the monthly data from January 2012 to January 2022,a VAR model is used to analyze the fluctuation of beef cattle prices and its causes.The results show that the price of beef cattle itself is the biggest factor causing its price changes.The impact of the calf price and feed price in the upstream of the industrial chain on the price of beef cattle is time-varying and cyclical,the impact of the beef price in the downstream of the industrial chain on the price of beef cattle is consistent and relatively stable,and the impact of external factors on the price of beef cattle is gradually increasing.The study suggests that it is necessary to adhere to the'government+market'regulatory model,ensure the price stability of the upstream and downstream of the beef cattle industry chain,take multiple measures to deal with external market shocks,and thus promote the stable operation of the beef cattle industry,making a positive contribution to the construction of animal husbandry.关键词
肉牛价格/肉牛产业链/高质量发展/VAR模型Key words
beef cattle price/beef cattle industry chain/high quality development/VAR model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
白霜..产业链视角下的肉牛价格波动及其成因分析[J].饲料研究,2024,47(13):184-188,5.基金项目
河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(项目编号:2025-ZZJH-160) （项目编号:2025-ZZJH-160）
