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产业链视角下的肉牛价格波动及其成因分析OA北大核心CSTPCD

Analysis on fluctuation and causes of beef cattle price from perspective of industrial chain

中文摘要英文摘要

文章基于产业链视角,考察肉牛价格波动情况及其成因,目的在于稳定肉牛市场价格,推动畜牧产业实现高质量发展.文章基于2012年1月-2022年1月的月度数据,采用VAR模型展开肉牛价格波动及其成因分析.结果表明,肉牛自身价格是造成其价格变动的最大因素.产业链上游牛犊价格和饲料价格对肉牛价格的冲击具有时变性和周期性,产业链下游牛肉价格对肉牛价格的影响呈现一致性且较为稳定,产业链外部因素对肉牛价格的冲击逐渐增强.研究表明,要坚持"政府+市场"调控模式,确保肉牛产业链上下游价格稳定,多措并举应对外部市场冲击,以此推动肉牛产业平稳运行,为畜牧建设作出积极贡献.

Based on the perspective of the industrial chain,this article examines the fluctuation of beef cattle prices and its causes,aiming to stabilize the market price of beef cattle and promote the high-quality development of the livestock industry.Based on the monthly data from January 2012 to January 2022,a VAR model is used to analyze the fluctuation of beef cattle prices and its causes.The results show that the price of beef cattle itself is the biggest factor causing its price changes.The impact of the calf price and feed price in the upstream of the industrial chain on the price of beef cattle is time-varying and cyclical,the impact of the beef price in the downstream of the industrial chain on the price of beef cattle is consistent and relatively stable,and the impact of external factors on the price of beef cattle is gradually increasing.The study suggests that it is necessary to adhere to the'government+market'regulatory model,ensure the price stability of the upstream and downstream of the beef cattle industry chain,take multiple measures to deal with external market shocks,and thus promote the stable operation of the beef cattle industry,making a positive contribution to the construction of animal husbandry.

白霜

河南经贸职业学院会计学院,河南郑州 450046

畜牧业

肉牛价格肉牛产业链高质量发展VAR模型

beef cattle pricebeef cattle industry chainhigh quality developmentVAR model

《饲料研究》 2024 (013)

184-188 / 5

河南省教育厅人文社会科学研究项目(项目编号:2025-ZZJH-160)

10.13557/j.cnki.issn1002-2813.2024.13.034

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