中国生态农业学报（中英文）2024，Vol.32Issue(7)：1136-1147,12.DOI:10.12357/cjea.20230750
四川省种植业碳排放现状、动态演进及预测
The situation,dynamic evolution,and prediction of carbon emissions in the planting industry of Sichuan Province
摘要
Abstract
Strengthening the calculation of carbon emissions in the planting industry will provide support for advancing green and low-carbon transformations.Focusing on the entire process of the planting industry,from input to output,this study utilized carbon emission coefficients to estimate the carbon emissions of the planting industry in Sichuan Province from 2010 to 2021.This estima-tion includes carbon emissions from three main sources:agricultural land use,rice field CH4 emissions,and agricultural land N2O emissions.This study aims to reveal the temporal characteristics and regional differences in carbon emissions from the planting in-dustry in Sichuan Province.Furthermore,kernel density analysis was employed to analyze the dynamic evolution trend of carbon emissions from the planting industry of Sichuan Province.In addition,a gray prediction model was utilized to predict carbon emis-sions and intensity from the planting industry of Sichuan Province from 2022 to 2030.The results showed that:1)carbon emissions from the planting industry in Sichuan Province showed a fluctuating increasing trend from 2010 to 2016 and a fluctuating decresing trend from 2016 to 2021,while carbon emission intensity continued to decrease from 2010 to 2021.Agricultural land use and rice field CH4 emissions were the primary contributors to carbon emissions from the planting industry.There was a decrease in the propor-tion of carbon emissions from agricultural land use and rice field CH4 in 2021 compared to 2010,whereas the proportions of agricul-tural land N2O emissions increased.2)Significant differences exist in carbon emissions and intensity among the cities(prefectures)in Sichuan Province.In 2021,carbon emissions from the city(Nanchong)with the highest value was 24.69 times higher than that from the prefecture(Ganzi)with the lowest value,and carbon emission intensity of the city(Bazhong)with the highest value was 2.8 times higher than that of the prefecture(Ganzi)with the lowest value.3)The dynamic evolution of carbon emissions in the planting in-dustry across the five regions of Sichuan Province displayed different characteristics.The carbon emission intensity in the Chengdu Plain,south Sichuan,northeast Sichuan,Panzhihua-Xichang,and northwest Sichuan showed a decreasing trend,albeit with varying rates and extents of decline.Overall,the disparity in carbon emission intensity between these five regions gradually narrowed.4)The projected trend suggests a steady decrease in both carbon emissions and intensity in the planting industry of Sichuan Province.It was estimated that by 2025 and 2030,the carbon emissions in the planting industry of Sichuan Province will decrease by approximately 68.72×104 t and 137.84× 104 t,respectively,while the carbon emission intensity will decrease by 0.13 t·(104 ¥)-1 and 0.26 t·(104¥)-1.Based on these results,this study suggests that carbon emissions reduction in the planting industry of Sichuan Province mainly re-duced the carbon emissions caused by chemical fertilizer input and rice field CH4.Tailored reduction measures need to be adopted ac-cording to local conditions,and agricultural scientific and technological innovation and promotion should be strengthened to improve green and low-carbon development in the planting industry of Sichuan Province.关键词
种植业/碳排放测算/核密度分析/灰色预测模型/四川省Key words
Planting industry/Carbon emission calculation/Kernel density analysis/Grey prediction model/Sichuan Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
熊鹰,但玉玲,王斌,向智敏,刘宗敏..四川省种植业碳排放现状、动态演进及预测[J].中国生态农业学报（中英文）,2024,32(7):1136-1147,12.基金项目
大自然保护协会项目(2022-075)、四川省农业科学院科技攻关任务(1+9KJGG009)和四川省财政创新能力提升工程专项资金项目(2022ZZCX038)资助 This study was supported by the Project of the Nature Conservancy(2022-075),the Science and Technology Task of Sichuan Academy of Agricultural Sciences(1+9KJGG009),and the Specialized Research Fund for Financial Innovation Capacity Improvement of Sichuan Province(2022ZZCX038). （2022-075）
