护理研究2024，Vol.38Issue(15)：2683-2689,7.DOI:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2024.15.008
老年多重慢性病与饮食习惯的关系及风险预测模型构建
Relationship between eating habits and multiple chronic diseases in the elderly and construction of risk prediction model
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To explore the relationship between eating habits and multiple chronic diseases in the elderly and the risk factors,and to build a prediction model according to the risk factors.Methods:484 elderly patients with chronic diseases admitted to our hospital from January 2020 to December 2023 were selected as the modeling group,including 363 patients with multiple chronic diseases(case group)and 121 patients with single chronic disease(control group).Another 161 elderly patients with chronic diseases were selected as verification group.Obtain general information and eating habits of patients.The relationship between eating habits and multiple chronic diseases in the elderly was discussed by multivariate Logistic regression analysis,and the influencing factors were screened.According to the screened influencing factors,a Nomograph risk model was constructed,and the predictive effectiveness of the model was evaluated.Results:Eating too fast,eating too full,eating fried and pickled foods≥4 d per week,being over 80 years old,having BMI>24.0 kg/m2 and having a family history were the influencing factors of multiple chronic diseases in the elderly(P<0.05),while consumption of fresh vegetables and fruits≥4 d per week and consumption of fish≥4 d per week were protective factors(P<0.05).Based on the above influencing factors,the risk nomogram model was constructed.The internal verification results showed that the area under ROC curve was 0.873(95%CI 0.810-0.941),and the average absolute error between the actual value and the predicted value showed by the calibration curve was 0.025;The internal verification results show that the area under ROC curve was 0.912(95%CI 0.823-0.986),and the analysis of calibration curve showed that the average absolute error between the actual value and the predicted value was 0.022.Conclusion:Eating too fast,eating too full,eating fried and pickled food for≥4 d per week,being over 80 years old,having BMI>24.0 kg/m2 and having a family history are the influencing factors of multiple chronic diseases in the elderly.The nomogram model based on this is helpful for the health management of such patients.关键词
老年人/多重慢性病/饮食习惯/影响因素/列线图模型Key words
the elderly/multiple chronic diseases/eating habits/influencing factors/Nomogram model引用本文复制引用
陈凤,苏恩惠,郭丹丹,吕阳阳,韩世范,朱瑞芳..老年多重慢性病与饮食习惯的关系及风险预测模型构建[J].护理研究,2024,38(15):2683-2689,7.基金项目
2023-2024年度山西省大健康产业高质量发展科研专项课题,编号:DJKZXKT2023157,DJKZXKT2023002 （）
