陕西林业科技2024，Vol.52Issue(3)：19-25,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-2117.2024.03.004
基于MaxEnt模型的甘草潜在适生区预测
Prediction of Suitable Regions Suitable for Glycyrrhiza uralensis Based on MaxEnt Model
摘要
Abstract
Glycyrrhiiza uralensis is a perennial herbaceous plant of the Leguminosae family and a me-dicinal plant with high economic value.This study,based on the MaxEnt model and 70 wild distribu-tion data of Glycyrrhiza uralensis,simulated the current suitable habitat distribution of Glycyrrhiiza uralensis and its distribution in different scenarios in China in the future(2050,2070),including me-dium social vulnerability and moderate radiative forcing in 2050(SSP 2-4.5)and compromised car-bon emission scenario for higher social vulnerability and higher radiative forcing in 2050(SSP 5-8.5).ArcGIS software was used to analyze the distribution and changes of suitable habitats for Gly-cyrrhiza uralensis in the future as well as the environmental factors affecting its potential suitable habitats.The results showed that:(1)currently,the suitable habitats for Glycyrrhiza uralensis are located in the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia,Gansu,Ningxia,northern Shaanxi,as well as the northeast of Xinjiang and Jilin,all of which are in the middle and high latitudes with low precipitation.Under different future scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5),the highly suitable habi-tats are mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia,Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Hebei,Jilin,Xin-jiang Uygur Autonomous Region,and the area of suitable habitats has expanded.(2)In the context of global climate change,the migration route of suitable habitats for Glycyrrhiza uralensis generally shows a shift from east to west and from north to south,and there is a trend of moving towards areas with lower precipitation.(3)The average precipitation in the coldest quarter,annual average precipi-tation,and seasonal changes in ultraviolet radiation are the dominant environmental factors affecting the changes in suitable habitats for Glycyrrhiza uralensis.关键词
甘草/MaxEnt模型/ArcGIS/适生区/迁移路线Key words
Glycyrrhiza uralensis/MaxEnt/ArcGIS/suitable/migration route分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
薛浩博,刘米利,李林山,周畅,段义忠..基于MaxEnt模型的甘草潜在适生区预测[J].陕西林业科技,2024,52(3):19-25,7.基金项目
榆林市2022年科技计划项目(CXY-2022-56) （CXY-2022-56）
陕西省教育厅2022年度一般专项科研计划项目(22JK0632) （22JK0632）
榆林市2022年科技计划项目(CXY-2022-71) （CXY-2022-71）
榆林道地秦药研究院建设专项(1507-2021hx36). （1507-2021hx36）
