中国石油大学学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.48Issue(4)：198-205,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-5005.2024.04.022
基于分位数映射法的太阳能精细化分布评估及长时预测
Refined distribution evaluation and long term prediction of solar energy based on quantile mapping method
摘要
Abstract
The efficient development and utilization of solar energy are of great significance for reducing the consumption of fossil fuels and greenhouse gas emissions.In order to further develop the solar energy in Northeast of China,especially in the area of Harbin,it is necessary to make refined distribution assessment and long term prediction.In the present work,the da-tabase of the CMIP6 was selected and downloaded,and the quantile mapping method was used to downscale and obtain high-resolution solar radiation data in the focusing area in the next 30 years.Based on the prediction data,the temporal and spa-tial distributions of global horizontal irradiance were studied,and the stability of solar energy resources was evaluated.The results show that the total solar radiation will decline slowly in the next 30 years,and the solar energy resources will be the most abundant in 2020-2029.The GHI and sunshine hours appear more in the western than in the eastern part,especially in the southwest,where the solar energy resources are the richest.The entire region is rich in solar energy resources and the so-lar energy resources are stable and have great development potential.关键词
太阳能/太阳辐射预测/分位数映射法/哈尔滨地区Key words
solar energy/solar radiation prediction/quantile mapping method/Harbin area分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
华科,王智超,姚遥,姜国栋,韩磊,万杰,田地,杨大智..基于分位数映射法的太阳能精细化分布评估及长时预测[J].中国石油大学学报（自然科学版）,2024,48(4):198-205,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(51877049) （51877049）
国家电网公司科技项目(5224002000N2) （5224002000N2）
