基于集合模型预测外来植物反枝苋的入侵趋势OA北大核心CSTPCD

Amaranthus retroflexus L.is a nationally distributed malignant weed with early invasion and wide distribution that causes serious harm.To promptly prevent and control A.retroflexus and effectively slow down or avoid its further spread,there is an urgent need to identify suitable habitats and invasion trends in China.Based on 296 distribution points and 32 environmental variables,using the meta-species distribution model,this study analyzed the potential suitable areas for A.retroflexus in the current period(1970-2000)and predicted the potential distribution pattern for A.retroflexus under three climate scenarios(SSPs1-2.6,SSPs2-4.5,and SSPs5-8.5)in the future(2021-2040 and 2041-2060).Furthermore,the main environmental variables and invasion trends affecting the geographical distribution of A.retroflexus were explored comprehensively.The results demonstrated that 1)through the three model accuracy evaluation indexes(AUC,KAPPA and TSS),the results of ensemble model(EM)simulation and prediction were proved to be the most accurate.Under the current climatic conditions,the main potential suitable areas of A.retroflexus were distributed in North China,Central China,East China,South China,the eastern part of Southwest China,and the southern and northern parts of Northwest China,with a distribution area of 4.39×106 km2.The potential distribution center of A.retroflexus is located in Yichuan County,Yan'an City,Shaanxi Province,with geographical coordinates of 110.32°E and 36.13°N.2)The main environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of A.retroflexus included the annual average temperature(Bio1),land use and cover(LUCC),altitude,and annual precipitation(Bio12).3)Under the three different climate scenarios in 2030 and 2050,with an increase in the year and emission scenario,the total suitable area of A.retroflexus will increase,and the expansion area will become much larger than the contraction area,accounting for 11.2%-21.4%.In addition,A.retroflexus will tend to spread to higher latitudes in the future.The diffusion areas in the eastern part of North China and southern part of Northeast China were the most significant.A.retroflexus also gradually spread in the southern part of Northwest China and the eastern part of Southwest China.Overall,the results of this study will contribute to the early warning of the invasion dynamics of this species and provide theoretical support for timely prevention and control measures to prevent further spread.