生态环境学报2024，Vol.33Issue(6)：888-899,12.DOI:10.16258/j.cnki.1674-5906.2024.06.006
基于集合模型预测外来植物反枝苋的入侵趋势
Prediction of Invasive Trend of Alien Plant Amaranthus retroflexus Based on Ensemble Model
摘要
Abstract
Amaranthus retroflexus L.is a nationally distributed malignant weed with early invasion and wide distribution that causes serious harm.To promptly prevent and control A.retroflexus and effectively slow down or avoid its further spread,there is an urgent need to identify suitable habitats and invasion trends in China.Based on 296 distribution points and 32 environmental variables,using the meta-species distribution model,this study analyzed the potential suitable areas for A.retroflexus in the current period(1970-2000)and predicted the potential distribution pattern for A.retroflexus under three climate scenarios(SSPs1-2.6,SSPs2-4.5,and SSPs5-8.5)in the future(2021-2040 and 2041-2060).Furthermore,the main environmental variables and invasion trends affecting the geographical distribution of A.retroflexus were explored comprehensively.The results demonstrated that 1)through the three model accuracy evaluation indexes(AUC,KAPPA and TSS),the results of ensemble model(EM)simulation and prediction were proved to be the most accurate.Under the current climatic conditions,the main potential suitable areas of A.retroflexus were distributed in North China,Central China,East China,South China,the eastern part of Southwest China,and the southern and northern parts of Northwest China,with a distribution area of 4.39×106 km2.The potential distribution center of A.retroflexus is located in Yichuan County,Yan'an City,Shaanxi Province,with geographical coordinates of 110.32°E and 36.13°N.2)The main environmental variables affecting the potential distribution of A.retroflexus included the annual average temperature(Bio1),land use and cover(LUCC),altitude,and annual precipitation(Bio12).3)Under the three different climate scenarios in 2030 and 2050,with an increase in the year and emission scenario,the total suitable area of A.retroflexus will increase,and the expansion area will become much larger than the contraction area,accounting for 11.2%-21.4%.In addition,A.retroflexus will tend to spread to higher latitudes in the future.The diffusion areas in the eastern part of North China and southern part of Northeast China were the most significant.A.retroflexus also gradually spread in the southern part of Northwest China and the eastern part of Southwest China.Overall,the results of this study will contribute to the early warning of the invasion dynamics of this species and provide theoretical support for timely prevention and control measures to prevent further spread.关键词
反枝苋/物种分布模型/环境变量/潜在适生区Key words
Amaranthus retroflexus/species distribution models/environmental variables/potential suitable areas分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
杨乐..基于集合模型预测外来植物反枝苋的入侵趋势[J].生态环境学报,2024,33(6):888-899,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(23BJY198) （23BJY198）
甘肃省教育厅高校教师创新基金项目(2024A-065) （2024A-065）
