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基于MaxEnt模型的橡胶林下金花茶套种适宜区研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Selection of Suitable Areas for Intercropping Camellia chrysantha Under Rubber Plantations Based on MaxEnt Model

中文摘要英文摘要

为明确橡胶林下金花茶套种适宜区,基于金花茶在中国已有的历史分布记录,结合环境数据,首先采用广义相加模型(GAM)、随机森林模型(RandomForest)和最大熵模型(MaxEnt)分别对金花茶在中国的潜在适宜区进行模拟,根据金花茶已有的分布记录和受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC)下面积(area under curve,AUC)以及 Kappa 系数对3个模型进行比较,挑选最优模型;然后通过图像处理手段,结合橡胶种植区及最优模型模拟结果,最终获得云南、广东、海南3省橡胶林下金花茶潜在的种植区域.结果表明,MaxEnt模型预测结果与金花茶在中国的分布记录有较高的重叠性,且ROC分析法的曲线下面积(AUC)>0.9,Kappa系数>0.8,证明MaxEnt模型预测结果较为可靠;影响金花茶潜在适宜区分布的主导因子是年均温度、积温、最干季湿度和湿润指数;海南省、广东省和云南省橡胶林下的金花茶高适宜区面积分别为20.92万、2.59万、15.11万hm2,主要集中分布在海南省的儋州和白沙、广东省的高州及云南省的勐腊和河口等市县;中适宜区在海南省、广东省和云南省,面积分别为25.71万、1.13万、23.78万hm2,主要分布在海南儋州、广东化州和云南景洪等市县;低适宜区主要分布在海南琼海和万宁、云南耿马和沧源等市县,面积为3.74万hm2和12.86万hm2.研究明确了橡胶林下套种金花茶的适宜地区及发展潜力,对金花茶的引种试验和栽培驯化提供了依据,也为林下套种物的筛选提供了一种新的方法.

To evaluate and select the suitable areas for Camellia chrysantha intercropping under rubber plantations in China,the generalized additive model(GAM),random forest model,and maximum entropy model(MaxEnt)were applied to simulate the potential suitable areas based on the historical distribution records of C.chrysantha and environmental data.By comparing with the existing distribution records of C.chrysantha,the area under curve(AUC)of the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC),and the Kappa coefficient,the best models were selected.Then,by using image processing techniques and combi-ning the rubber plantation areas with the best model simulation results,potential planting areas for C.chrysantha under rubber forests in Yunnan,Guangdong,and Hainan provinces were ultimately obtained.The results showed that the MaxEnt model had a high overlap with the distribution records of C.chrysan-tha in China,and the area under the ROC curve(AUC)was greater than 0.9,with a Kappa coefficient greater than 0.8,which demonstrated that the prediction results of MaxEnt model were reliable.The main factors influencing the potential suitable distribution of C.chrysantha were mean annual temperature,ac-cumulated temperature,humidity during the driest season,and humidity index.The highly suitable zone of C.chrysantha under rubber forest was mainly distributed in Danzhou and Baisha County in Hainan Prov-ince,Gaozhou City in Guangdong Province,Mengla County and Hekou County in Yunnan Province.Among them,the areas with high suitability in Hainan,Guangdong and Yunnan Province were 209 200 hm2,25 900 hm2 and 151 100 hm2,respectively.The areas with medium suitability in Hainan,Guangdong and Yunnan were 257 100 hm2,11 300 hm2 and 237 800 hm2,respectively,which mainly distributed in Danzhou City,Gaozhou City and Jinghong City.The areas with low suitability took up a small proportion and were mainly distributed in Qionghai City and Wanning City in the east of Hainan Province and Gengma County and Cangyuan County in Yunnan,covering an area of 37 400 hm2 and 128 600 hm2 respectively.Through this study,the suitable areas and development potential of C.chrysantha intercropping under rubber forests are preliminarily indentified,which provide a basis for C.chrysantha intercropping under rubber forests,and also provide a new method for the screening of understory intercropping crops.

郭龙源;杨思思;李茜;丁泽;云挺;安锋

南京林业大学林学院,江苏南京 210037||中国热带农业科学院橡胶研究所,海南儋州热带农业生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站,海南儋州 571737中国热带农业科学院橡胶研究所,海南儋州热带农业生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站,海南儋州 571737||宁夏大学农学院,宁夏银川 750021宁夏大学农学院,宁夏银川 750021南京林业大学信息科学技术学院,江苏南京 210037南京林业大学林学院,江苏南京 210037||南京林业大学信息科学技术学院,江苏南京 210037中国热带农业科学院橡胶研究所,海南儋州热带农业生态系统国家野外科学观测研究站,海南儋州 571737

林学

金花茶橡胶树MaxEnt模型林下套种

Camellia chrysanthaHevea brasiliensisMaxEnt modelintercropping under the forest

《西北林学院学报》 2024 (004)

200-208 / 9

海南省重点研发计划项目(ZDYF2022XDNY200);国家现代农业产业技术体系项目(CARS33-天然橡胶).

10.3969/j.issn.1001-7461.2024.04.24

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