珍稀特有植物大别山五针松潜在适生区预测OACSTPCD

Based on 48 distribution records and 6 environmental variables,the MaxEnt model to simulate the potential distribution range of the Dabie mountain P.dabeshanensis from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 20th century was applied to explore the environmental factors influencing its suitable distribution range and analyze the spatial transformation patterns.The results indicated that:(1)The MaxEnt model has extremely high predictive accuracy,with an Area Under Curve(AUC)value of 0.998.(2)Currently,P.dabeshanensis is mainly distributed in the Dabie mountain region of southwestern Anhui and eastern Hubei in China.The total area of potential suitable habitats is approximately 83.28 × 101 km2.The high,moderate and low suitability zones cover areas of approximately 6.61 × 104 km2,20.88 × 104 km2 and 55.80 × 104 km2,respectively.The distribution center of the high suitability area is located at Zipeng mountain in Hefei,Anhui.(3)The main climatic factors restricting the distribution pattern of the Dabie mountain P.dabeshanensis are the precipitation of the warmest quarter(bio18),the lowest temperature of the coldest month(bio6)and isothermality(bio3).(4)It is predicted that the distribution center of the high suitability zone of P.dabeshanensis will shift southward in the future,and its geographical distribution range may decrease.According to the corrected test results for the estimated precipitation bias,the precipitation in the warmest season in the Dabie mountain region is expected to decrease significantly in the future.Therefore,precipitation in the warmest season may be one of the important reasons leading to the endangered status of P.dabeshanensis.Additionally,Huanggang and Anqing are identified as stable suitable areas for P.dabeshanensis,and should be prioritized for protection to ensure the survival and reproduction of the species.Enshi in Hubei and Zhangjiajie in Hunan are identified as ideal areas for the introduction of artificial forests of P.dabeshanensis.The results of this study can give the references for future formulation of protection measures and management strategies,as well as for maintaining the integrity and stability of the ecosystem of P.dabeshanensis.