信阳师范学院学报（自然科学版）2024，Vol.37Issue(3)：298-306,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-0972.2024.03.004
珍稀特有植物大别山五针松潜在适生区预测
Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of the Rare and Endemic Plant Pinus Dabeshanensis
摘要
Abstract
Based on 48 distribution records and 6 environmental variables,the MaxEnt model to simulate the potential distribution range of the Dabie mountain P.dabeshanensis from the Last Glacial Maximum to the 20th century was applied to explore the environmental factors influencing its suitable distribution range and analyze the spatial transformation patterns.The results indicated that:(1)The MaxEnt model has extremely high predictive accuracy,with an Area Under Curve(AUC)value of 0.998.(2)Currently,P.dabeshanensis is mainly distributed in the Dabie mountain region of southwestern Anhui and eastern Hubei in China.The total area of potential suitable habitats is approximately 83.28 × 101 km2.The high,moderate and low suitability zones cover areas of approximately 6.61 × 104 km2,20.88 × 104 km2 and 55.80 × 104 km2,respectively.The distribution center of the high suitability area is located at Zipeng mountain in Hefei,Anhui.(3)The main climatic factors restricting the distribution pattern of the Dabie mountain P.dabeshanensis are the precipitation of the warmest quarter(bio18),the lowest temperature of the coldest month(bio6)and isothermality(bio3).(4)It is predicted that the distribution center of the high suitability zone of P.dabeshanensis will shift southward in the future,and its geographical distribution range may decrease.According to the corrected test results for the estimated precipitation bias,the precipitation in the warmest season in the Dabie mountain region is expected to decrease significantly in the future.Therefore,precipitation in the warmest season may be one of the important reasons leading to the endangered status of P.dabeshanensis.Additionally,Huanggang and Anqing are identified as stable suitable areas for P.dabeshanensis,and should be prioritized for protection to ensure the survival and reproduction of the species.Enshi in Hubei and Zhangjiajie in Hunan are identified as ideal areas for the introduction of artificial forests of P.dabeshanensis.The results of this study can give the references for future formulation of protection measures and management strategies,as well as for maintaining the integrity and stability of the ecosystem of P.dabeshanensis.关键词
大别山/珍稀濒危植物/生态位模拟/MaxEnt/气候变化/大别山五针松Key words
Dabie mountain/rare and endangered plants/ecological niche modeling/MaxEnt/climatic change/Pinus dabeshanensis分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
闫明慧,刘彬文,温晓慧,田丰果..珍稀特有植物大别山五针松潜在适生区预测[J].信阳师范学院学报（自然科学版）,2024,37(3):298-306,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(31800276) （31800276）
河南省高校重点科研项目(19A180029) （19A180029）
信阳师范学院"南湖学者奖励计划"青年项目 （）
