应用生态学报2024，Vol.35Issue(6)：1625-1634,10.DOI:10.13287/j.1001-9332.202406.022
气候变化背景下汾渭平原参考作物蒸散量的时空变化与归因分析
Spatiotemporal variations and attribution analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the Fenwei Plain under climate change
摘要
Abstract
Reference crop evapotranspiration(ET0)is a crucial variable for estimating the ecological water demand of vegetation.Under climate change,the trends of ET0 change vary in different regions.The study of spatial and temporal variations in ET0 and attribution analysis at the regional scale is more conducive to the regional agricultural water management and ecological water demand estimation under the changing environment.We analyzed the change trend,spatial distribution and the contribution of meteorological factors to annual ET0 change of the Fenwei Plain during a historical period(1985-2015)and a future period(2030-2060)based on the latest climate data and high-precision grid data from the Sixth International Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).The results showed that the meteorological data from CMIP6 could be used for the prediction of ET0 after bias correction,and that the prediction accuracy of the multi-model ensemble approach(R2 of 82.9％,RMSE of 14.9 mm)was higher than that of a single climate model.ET0 in the Fenwei Plain showed a significant decreasing trend in the his-torical period,but a non-significant increasing and significant increasing trend in the future period under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,respectively.The vapor pressure deficit had the largest contribution to the ET0 change in both the historical and future periods,and was the primary meteorological factor affecting the ET0 change in the Fenwei Plain under the climate change.Solar radiation and wind speed were important meteorological factors affecting the ET0 change in the historical period,while temperature and wind speed were the important meteorologi-cal factors affecting the ET0 change in the future period.The meteorological factors that had great contribution to ET0 change were due to the larger multi-year relative change rates,rather than the high sensitivity of these meteoro-logical factors to ET0.The ET0 of the plain under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios increased by 4.2％and 3.1％in the future period,respectively,compared with the historical period.The differences in the spatial distribution of the result were mainly from the eastern and western regions of the plain.Based on the high-precision spatial and temporal distribution of ET0,the spatial and temporal data could be used as a reference for the development of vari-ous adaptation for climate change in the Fenwei Plain.关键词
气候变化/参考作物蒸散量/汾渭平原/气象要素/贡献率Key words
climate change/reference evapotranspiration/Fenwei Plain/meteorological variable/contribution rate引用本文复制引用
郭大辛,李傲翔,刘恩科,王娟玲..气候变化背景下汾渭平原参考作物蒸散量的时空变化与归因分析[J].应用生态学报,2024,35(6):1625-1634,10.基金项目
本文由国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1901101)、山西农业大学博士科研启动项目(2021BQ129)、山西省基础研究计划青年科学研究项目(202103021223143)和山西省博士来晋工作奖励资金科研项目(SXBYKY2022086)资助. （2021YFD1901101）
