中国国土资源经济2024，Vol.37Issue(7)：83-89,7.DOI:10.19676/j.cnki.1672-6995.001003
"双碳"背景下我国钴资源需求预测及分析
Forecast and Analysis of Cobalt Resource Demand in China Under the Background of"Dual Carbon"
摘要
Abstract
The article analyzed the consumption structure of cobalt resources in China under the background of the"dual carbon"target,and constructed traditional GM(1,1),new information GM(1,1),and metabolism GM(1,1)models respectively based on the total cobalt consumption and its composition(3C battery,power battery,etc.)in China from 2015 to 2022.And the best model was selected to predict the consumption of cobalt resources in China from 2025 to 2030.The research results indicate that the demand for cobalt in China is expected to rise annually,with consumption projected to reach 208,400 tonnes by 2030,among which the proportion of power battery will gradually surpass 3C battery and other fields,and become the largest component of cobalt resource consumption.In order to ensure a stable supply of cobalt resources in China,it is suggested to optimize the exploration technology,strengthen technological innovation,and promote the recycling of cobalt resources.Meanwhile,it is also recommended to promote international cooperation and establish China's cobalt resource guarantee system.关键词
"双碳"目标/钴资源/GM(1,1)模型/需求预测Key words
"dual carbon"target/cobalt resources/GM(1,1)model/demand forecasting分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王欣悦,彭频.."双碳"背景下我国钴资源需求预测及分析[J].中国国土资源经济,2024,37(7):83-89,7.基金项目
2020年度江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目(JD20047) （JD20047）
