中国感染控制杂志2024，Vol.23Issue(7)：812-818,7.DOI:10.12138/j.issn.1671-9638.20246033
2017-2022年中国大陆结核病发病率时空特征分布及影响因素
Spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of in-cidences of tuberculosis in Chinese mainland,2017-2022
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of the in-cidence of tuberculosis(TB)in Chinese mainland,and provide scientific basis for relevant departments to formulate policies and guidelines.Methods TB incidence in Chinese mainland from 2017 to 2022 was as the research object,and data of relevant influencing factors were collected.The spatial autocorrelation analysis method was adopted to establish a spatial lag model to explore the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of TB incidence,and the im-portant influencing factors of TB incidence were screened.Results From 2017 to 2022,TB incidence reported in 31 provinces and cities in Chinese mainland were 60.53/100 000,59.27/100 000,55.55/100 000,47.76/100 000,45.37/100 000 and 39.76/100 000,respectively,showing a yearly downward trend.Global Moran's Ⅰ analysis showed that TB incidence presented spatial-temporal aggregation.The spatial distribution map and the local indica-tors of spatial association(LISA)aggregation diagram analysis results for the incidence of reported TB showed a de-creasing trend from west to east in TB incidence.In the spatial lag model,the coefficients of 6 insignificant factors shrank to 0,and 6 important factors were screened out:gross domestic product(GDP)per capita(coefficient-0.259),urban unemployment rate(coefficient-0.198),annual sunshine duration(coefficient-0.332),annual mean rela-tive humidity(coefficient-0.433),annual mean NO2 concentration(coefficient-0.263),and annual mean PM10 concentration(coefficient-0.336).Conclusion From 2017 to 2022,TB incidences in Chinese mainland declined year by year,and presented spatial difference and spatial aggregation:high in the east,low in the west,and stable in the middle area.Social economy,climate and air pollution have strong effects on the incidence of TB.Relevant departments should pay more attention to the prevention and treatment of TB in the western region and take targeted preventive measures.关键词
结核病/空间自相关/发病率/重要因素筛选/空间滞后/发病率时空特征Key words
tuberculosis/spatial autocorrelation/incidence/screening of important factor/spatial lag/spatial-temporal characteristics of incidence分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
熊洁,张辉国,胡锡健,王森路..2017-2022年中国大陆结核病发病率时空特征分布及影响因素[J].中国感染控制杂志,2024,23(7):812-818,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金地区项目(11961065) （11961065）
新疆自然科学基金(2023D01C01) （2023D01C01）
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(19YJA910007) （19YJA910007）
