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基于合成控制法的远程医疗试点政策效应评估OA

Effect evaluation of telemedicine pilot policy in China based on synthetic control method

中文摘要英文摘要

目的 证明远程医疗对促进患者基层就诊的效果,评估远程医疗试点政策效应并提出对策建议.方法 选择县级医院诊疗和人院人次作为评价指标评估远程医疗试点政策的效果;采用合成控制法,基于28个省区疫情前2003-2019年数据,对试点政策效应进行评估,并运用安慰剂检验进行结果稳健性检验.结果 2015年远程医疗试点政策实施后,4个试点省区贵州、内蒙古、云南、宁夏的县级医院诊疗/人院人次上升加快.统计结果显示了试点政策效应的显著性.对于西藏,由于政策实施之前人次拟合效果欠佳,因此无法评估远程医疗试点政策对其县级医院就诊人次的影响.结论 远程医疗试点政策促进了贵州、内蒙古、云南、宁夏4省区的患者基层就诊;试点政策可有效推进远程医疗服务发挥远程医疗下沉优质医疗资源、促进基层就诊的作用;未来应总结远程医疗建设经验、因地制宜推广和评估远程医疗服务.

Objective To inspect the effect of telemedicine in promoting patients to visit primary medi-cal facilities,thus evaluating the effect of the telemedicine pilot policy and proposing suggestions.Methods The numbers of visits and admissions to county hospitals were selected as indicators to evaluate the effect of the tele-medicine pilot policy.The effect was evaluated using a synthetic control method based on data from 28 provinces and regions from 2003 to 2019.And the robustness of the results was examined by a placebo test.Results After the implementation of the telemedicine pilot policy in 2015,the increase in the numbers of visits/admissions to county hospitals accelerated in four pilot provinces and regions,Guizhou,Inner Mongolia,Yunnan,and Ningxia.The pilot policy significantly contributed to these increases.As for Tibet,the impact of the telemedicine pilot poli-cy could not be assessed because of poor fit of visits/admissions prior to 2015.Conclusions The telemedicine pi-lot policy promotes patients visiting primary medical facilities in the four pilot provinces and regions,Guizhou,In-ner Mongolia,Yunnan and Ningxia.The pilot policy can effectively promote telemedicine services,playing the role of deploying high-quality healthcare resources to primary medical facilities and increasing primary medical vis-its.For the future,the experience of telemedicine construction should be summarized.And the telemedicine serv-ices should be promoted and evaluated according to the local conditions.

谌文佳;李金林

北京信息科技大学经济管理学院,北京 100192北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京 100081

预防医学

远程医疗合成控制法政策效应评估

TelemedicineSynthetic control methodPolicy effect evaluation

《中国农村卫生事业管理》 2024 (007)

493-501 / 9

国家自然科学基金面上项目(71972012)

10.19955/j.cnki.1005-5916.2024.07.006

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