摘要
Abstract
As the main meat products in China,the price fluctuation of pork not only affects consumers,but also relates to the interests of pig farmers,so it is very important for the price of pork to maintain normal fluctuations.Taking the monthly pork price time series data of Shandong province from 2016 to 2022 as the research object,this paper constructed the GARCH(1,1)model to analyze the influencing factors of pork price.The empirical analysis results showed that:at the significance level of 5%,the effects of live pigs,piglets,mutton prices with a lag period,beef prices and beef prices with a lag period on pork prices are all significant,among which the impact of mutton prices with a lag period is the most significant,with the absolute value of the coefficient being 0.915,and the impact of piglet prices is the least.At the same time,this paper studied the early warning mechanism through establishing the grey theory early warning model to monitor the abnormal value of pork price.The results showed that grey GM(1,1)has a good early warning effect,and its model accuracy reaches 87.12%,which can meet the prediction effect.Finally,based on the results of empirical analysis,specific suggestions were put forward to prevent abnormal price fluctuation of pork from the perspective of demand and supply.关键词
猪肉价格波动因素/价格预测/GARCH(1,1)模型/价格预警/GM(1,1)Key words
pork price fluctuation factor/price forecast/GARCH(1,1)model/price warning/GM(1,1)
