地质通报2024，Vol.43Issue(7)：1255-1265,11.DOI:10.12097/gbc.2023.02.034
区域地质灾害易发性评价的证据权法原理与实践
Principle and application of the weight-of-evidence method in regional landslide susceptibility assessment
摘要
Abstract
Based on elaboration of the concept and principle of WoE,Lanzhou urban area,which is highly prone to slides and falls in the Loess Plateau of Northwest China,is taken as example to detail technical process of regional geological hazards susceptibility assessment based on the WoE.GIS tools are used to carry out evaluation index selection and correlation analysis,weight and posterior probability analysis of evidence factors,assessment model verification,and susceptibility degree classification and assessment.The analysis results show that there is no correlation or weak correlation between the factors affecting geological hazards such as slope,slope direction,stratum lithology,faults,waterfalls,green irrigation and land use type,which meets the requirements of mutual independence.AUC(Area Under Curve)of the ROC curve(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve)of the model is 0.85,which means high prediction accuracy.Theoretical analysis and empirical application have demonstrated that,in comparison with other statistical methods,the WoE takes into account both probability of the presence and absence of geological hazard within the evaluation factors.Thereby,it prevents distortion caused by overestimation of weights when geological hazards are absence.The result of the WoE is the absolute probability of the occurrence of geological hazards,which can serve as a basis for comparing the susceptibility of geological hazards from different areas.关键词
地质灾害/易发性评价/证据权/后验概率/ROC曲线/兰州Key words
geological hazards/susceptibility assessment/weight of evidence/posteriori probability/ROC curve/Lanzhou urban area分类
地质学引用本文复制引用
冯振,陈亮,王立朝,侯圣山,田怡帆,刘明学..区域地质灾害易发性评价的证据权法原理与实践[J].地质通报,2024,43(7):1255-1265,11.基金项目
中国地质调查局项目《重点地区地质灾害风险调查与评价》(编号:DD20221748)、《洮河流域中游灾害地质调查》(编号:DD20190645)和贵州电科院科技项目《山区电网地质灾害危险性快速与动态评价技术研究》(编号:0002200000089405) （编号:DD20221748）
