基于改进可拓云模型的沙漠路基工程施工风险评价研究OA

To effectively explore the construction risks of desert highway subgrade engineering, identify the risk sources that affect subgrade construction, and reduce the losses caused by risks.Firstly, drawing on the 4M1E theory in quality management and using literature research methods, combined with the standard specifications for desert roadbed construction, risk indicators were preliminarily identified from five aspects: personnel factors, mechanical factors, material factors, technical factors, and environmental factors.A questionnaire survey method was used to screen the indicators, and 23 secondary indicators were established to construct a desert roadbed construction risk evaluation index system.Then, the subjective weights are determined using the G1 method, the objective weights are determined using the COWA operator, and the game theory ideas are applied to combine the subjective and objective weights to determine the final weights of the indicators.Finally, by using the optimal cloud entropy to improve the extensible cloud model, based on relevant literature and the Construction Project Management Specification, the risk level of roadbed construction is divided into five risk levels, namely U=(low risk, medium low risk, medium risk, medium high risk, high risk), and a case study is conducted on the first contract section of the S254 line from Yuli to the end of the Xinjiang Wuwei Highway Package PPP Project.The project is located in the southern part of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, and the route passes through the hinterland of the Taklamakan Desert, with a large section of it dominated by desert.The project area has a typical continental desert climate, with strong winds, sandstorms, and floating dust weather in spring, high temperatures and dryness in summer, rapid temperature drops in autumn, large diurnal temperature differences, and less snow and dry cold in winter.The research results indicate that the construction risk level of the desert highway subgrade project is level Ⅱ, belonging to medium to low risk.The risk level of personnel and technical factors in the first level indicators is level Ⅱ, medium to low risk, environmental factors are level Ⅲ, medium risk, and all other indicators are level Ⅰ low risk, consistent with the actual construction situation.Based on the evaluation results, corresponding measures should be taken to effectively reduce the construction risks of roadbed engineering in desert areas, such as improving the professional quality of construction workers, doing a good job in sand prevention and fixation, and strengthening weather prediction.By comparing with traditional matter element models, the effectiveness of the optimal cloud entropy improved extension cloud model was verified.The evaluation results obtained through the optimal cloud entropy algorithm have significantly improved compared to the "3En" cloud entropy extension cloud model and the "50% correlation" extension cloud model.The improved extension cloud model using the optimal cloud entropy takes into account the cloud correlation characteristics calculated by the above two models, achieving the calculation of comprehensive cloud correlation with the highest credibility.The research results of this article can provide reference for the prevention and control of roadbed construction risks in other desert areas.The risk assessment index system for desert roadbed construction should be deleted and supplemented according to the actual situation of the project, aiming to effectively improve the construction level and engineering quality of desert highway roadbed engineering.