Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia:State of art and scientific challengesOA
Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia:State of art and scientific challenges
High Mountain Asia(HMA)shows a remarkable warming tendency and divergent trend of regional precipitation with enhanced meteorological extremes.The rapid thawing of the HMA cryosphere may alter the magnitude and frequency of nature hazards.We reviewed the influence of climate change on various types of nature hazards in HMA region,including their phenomena,mechanisms and impacts.It reveals that:1)the occurrences of extreme rainfall,heavy snowfall,and drifting snow hazards are escalating;accelerated ice and snow melting have advanced the onset and increased the magnitude of snowmelt floods;2)due to elevating trigger factors,such as glacier debuttressing and the rapid shift of thermal and hydrological regime of bedrock/snow/ice interface or subsurface,the mass flow hazards including bedrock landslide,snow avalanche,ice-rock avalanches or glacier detachment,and debris flow will become more severe;3)increased active-layer detachment and retrogressive thaw slumps slope failures,thaw settlement and thermokarst lake will damage many important engineering structures and infrastructure in permafrost region;4)multi-hazards cascading hazard in HMA,such as the glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF)and avalanche-induced mass flow may greatly enlarge the destructive power of the primary hazard by amplifying its volume,mobility,and impact force;and 5)enhanced slope instability and sediment supply in the highland areas could impose remote catastrophic impacts upon lowland regions,and threat hydropower security and future water shortage.In future,ongoing thawing of HMA will profoundly weaken the multiple-phase material of bedrock,ice,water,and soil,and enhance activities of nature hazards.Compounding and cascading hazards of high magnitude will prevail in HMA.As the glacier runoff overpasses the peak water,low flow or droughts in lowland areas downstream of glacierized mountain regions will became more frequent and severe.Addressing escalating hazards in the HMA region requires tackling scientific challenges,including understanding multiscale evolution and for-mation mechanism of HMA hazard-prone systems,coupling thermo-hydro-mechanical processes in multi-phase flows,predicting catastrophes arising from extreme weather and climate events,and comprehending how highland hazards propagate to lowlands due to climate change.
Hao WANG;Jiao WANG;Guo-Tao ZHANG;Wei-Mo LI;Yu LEI;Wen-Qing ZHAO;Jin-Bo TANG;Chao-Yue LI;Bin-Bin WANG;Peng CUI;Yao-Ming MA;Yan WANG;Jian-Sheng HAO;Yu WANG;Ya-Mei LI;Li-Jun SUN
Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,ChinaInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,ChinaState Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China||College of Atmospheric Science,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,ChinaInstitute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China||China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Islamabad 45320,PakistanState Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,ChinaInstitute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China||Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China||China-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Islamabad 45320,PakistanState Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System,Environment and Resources(TPESER),Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China||College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China||College of Atmospheric Science,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China||National Observation and Research Station for Qomolongma Special Atmospheric Processes and Environmental Changes,Dingri 858200,ChinaInstitute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610041,China||College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China
High Mountain AsiaClimate changeCryosphere degradationNature hazardsDisaster risk
《气候变化研究进展（英文版）》 2024 (003)
367-389 / 23
This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41941017,42101083),the Second Ti-betan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(STEP)(2019QZKK0906),and Science and Technology Research Program of Institute of Mountain Hazards and Envi-ronment,Chinese Academy of Sciences(IMHE-ZDRW-02).
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