Variations and future projections of glacial discharge of Urumqi River Headwaters,eastern Tien Shan(1980s-2017)OA
Variations and future projections of glacial discharge of Urumqi River Headwaters,eastern Tien Shan(1980s-2017)
To address data scarcity on long-term glacial discharge and inadequacies in simulating and predicting hydrological processes in the Tien Shan,this study analysed the observed discharge at multiple timescales over 1980s-2017 and projected changes within a representative gla-cierized high-mountain region:eastern Tien Shan,Central Asia.Hydrological processes were simulated to predict changes under four future scenarios(SSP1,SSP2,SSP3,and SSP5)using a classical hydrological model coupled with a glacier dynamics module.Discharge rates at annual,monthly(June,July,August)and daily timescales were obtained from two hydrological gauges:Urumqi Glacier No.l hydrological station(UGH)and Zongkong station(ZK).Overall,annual and summer discharge increased significantly(p＜0.05)at both stations over the study period.Their intra-annual variations mainly resulted from differences in their recharge mechanisms.The simulations show that a tipping point in annual discharge at UGH may occur between 2018 and 2024 under the four SSPs scenarios.Glacial discharge is predicted to cease earlier at ZK than at UGH.This relates to glacier type and size,suggesting basins with heavily developed small glaciers will reach peak discharge sooner,resulting in an earlier freshwater supply challenge.These findings serve as a reference for research into glacial runoff in Central Asia and provide a decision-making basis for planning local water-resource projects.
Hui ZHANG;Fei-Teng WANG;Ping ZHOU;Yi-Da XIE
State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,ChinaState Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China||Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,ChinaKey Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China
Observed glacial dischargeTemporal variationsUrumqi River HeadwatersEastern Tien ShanSimulation and projection
《气候变化研究进展（英文版）》 2024 (003)
537-546 / 10
We greatly appreciate the great pioneers of the field survey group from Tianshan Glaciological Station,Northwest Eco-Environmental and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sci-ences,for the long-term tough fieldwork over the past 60 years.We also acknowledge the Daxigou Meteorological Station,China Meteorological Administration,for providing the climate data used herein.Thank is also due to the U.S.Geological Survey(USGS)for providing Landsat images.This study was supported by the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program(2021xjkk0801),the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(2019QZKK0201),and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42301168).We would like to express our gratitude to the editor and the anonymous reviewers for their insightful com-ments and valuable suggestions.
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