人民长江2024，Vol.55Issue(7)：10-19,10.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2024.07.002
极端天气下轨道交通水害致灾因子时空分布特征
Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of disaster-causing factors for rail transit flooding under extreme conditions
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,under the interaction of multiple extreme weather factors related to climate change,flooding events have caused serious impacts on cities and rail transit systems.Taking a typical coastal city Guangzhou City in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as a case study,we examined the main contributing factors(extreme rainfall and typhoon storm surge)and related parameters of rail transit flooding,revealing their temporal and spatial distribution characteristics.The study results showed that:①The amount and intensity of rainfall in Guangzhou City have increased significantly,while the dura-tion of rainfall has decreased,leading to an overall increase in rainfall and a trend toward more extreme precipitation events.There are two extreme intervals of rainfall distribution in Guangzhou City during the year.The first interval is associated with the"Drag-on-Boat-Precipitation,"while the second interval is mainly influenced by typhoons.The spatial distribution of rainfall in Guan-gzhou City is uneven,primarily due to the monsoon and geographic location.② The 29 typhoons and storm surges that affected Guangdong Province in the past 10 years occurred between July and October,coinciding with the second extreme rainfall interval.Analyzing typical rail transit water damage events in Guangdong Province in recent years revealed that the high incidence of water damage aligns with these two extreme intervals.Although the intensity of typhoons in Guangdong Province is slowly decreasing,the frequency of typhoons and storm surges in its coastal cities is increasing.Given that all rail transit systems are densely distributed in the central region of Guangdong Province,the risk of water damage to these systems is expected to increase in the future due to changes in the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme weather.The results of the study can serve as a founda-tion for future research on the characteristics of urban rail transit water damage and as a reference for urban disaster prevention and mitigation.关键词
轨道交通/洪涝灾害/致灾因子/极端降雨/台风风暴潮/特征参数模型/广州市Key words
rail transit/flood disasters/disaster-causing factors/extreme rainfall/typhoon storm surge/characteristic para-metric model/Guangzhou City分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
江雨潮,高燕,史天根,孙可天,施旭..极端天气下轨道交通水害致灾因子时空分布特征[J].人民长江,2024,55(7):10-19,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3005203) （2022YFC3005203）
