水土保持研究2024，Vol.31Issue(5)：288-294,7.DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2024.05.014
基于CMIP6气候模式对长江流域四川段的未来降水变化预估与分析
Prediction and Analysis of Future Precipitation Changes in the Sichuan Section of the Yangtze River Basin Based on the CMIP6 Climate Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Understanding and grasping the temporal and spatial changes in meteorology and reasonably predicting the future trend of climate change can provide an important theoretical basis for the formulation of regional response measures.[Methods]The Sichuan section of the Yangtze River Basin was selected as the research area.Data analysis was conducted based on measured station data from 1980 to 2014.Three future hypothetical climate scenario models(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)were estimated using the GCM with complete scenarios in the sixth phase of the International Coupled Model Comparison Plan(CMIP6)after bias correction,and the changes in precipitation climate variables within the region were analyzed.[Results](1)There is a certain degree of underestimation of precipitation simulation in climate models,with monthly scale＞seasonal scale＞annual scale in terms of time scale.(2)After the calibration and evaluation of the climate model,the data are more consistent with the actual situation,and the quantile mapping method is very effective for the calibration of the Climate model data.(3)Compared to the benchmark period(1980-2014),the future precipitation in the study area is higher than the historical period under three scenarios,with SSP5-8.5＞SSP2-4.5＞SSP1-2.6.(4)The areas with significant increases in precipitation are mainly located in the northwest of the study area,showing a spatial pattern of low level in the west and high level in the east.[Conclusion]The climate model's prediction of future precipitation changes in the study area shows an overall increasing trend,but there is underestimation to a certain extent.关键词
CMIP6模式/气候变化/统计降尺度Delta/长江流域四川段Key words
CMIP6 model/climate change/statistical downscaling/Sichuan section of the Yangtze River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈俣霏,韩玉国,孙明东,韩乐..基于CMIP6气候模式对长江流域四川段的未来降水变化预估与分析[J].水土保持研究,2024,31(5):288-294,7.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目"近岸海域氮磷污染陆海气协同防治关键技术研究与示范"(2021YFC3101703) （2021YFC3101703）
