兰州市城关区中老年人群恶性肿瘤发病与死亡情况及其危险因素的队列研究OA北大核心CSTPCD

Objective To analyze the incidence and mortality of malignant tumors among the middle-aged and elderly population in Chengguan district of Lanzhou from 2011 to 2021,and to discuss the related risk factors.Methods Using the research data of REACTION in Lanzhou,an epidemiological survey was conducted through cluster sampling in three communities in Chengguan district of Lanzhou since April 2011.The target population was middle-aged and elderly residents over 40 years old.Two follow-up surveys were carried out in 2014-2016 and 2021 successively,and 6543 people with complete follow-up data were finally included.The incidence and mortality rates of malignant tumors were calculated,as well as their age standardized rates with reference to the age composition of Segi's world standard population.Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to screen the risk factors affecting the incidence and mortality of malignant tumors.Results After an average follow-up of 10.6 years,314 new cases of malignant tumors were found in middle-aged and elderly residents in Chengguan district of Lanzhou,with an incidence rate and age standardized incidence rate of 454.30/100 000 and 128.93/100 000,respectively.A total of 158 deaths were attributed to malignant tumors,with a mortality rate and age standardized rate of 228.41/100 000 and 607.9/100 000,respectively;The age standardized incidence rate and mortality rate of malignant tumors males were both higher than those females(P＜0.05).During the follow-up period,the age standardized incidence rate of malignant tumors in the general population showed an significant upward trend(P＜0.05),whereas the age standardized mortality rate gradually decreased after a brief increase(P＜0.05).Lung cancer,colorectal cancer,gastric cancer,and liver cancer were the main types of malignant tumors ranking in the top five in terms of incidence and mortality by gender.Multivariate Cox regression results indicate that male,age≥60 years old,college education level or above,smoking history,drinking history,having been hit by major stressful events,central obesity,hypertension,and coronary heart disease are risk factors for the onset or death of malignant tumors(HR＞1).Married,with family size≥4,frequent consumption of fresh fruit,frequent consumption of fresh vegetables,frequent consumption of grains and tubers are protective factors for the onset or death of malignant tumors(HR＜1).Conclusion The incidence of malignant tumors among middle-aged and elderly people in Chengguan district of Lanzhou from 2011 to 2021 showed an increasing trend,while the overall mortality was decreasing.Our study indicates early cancer screening in elderly populations,maintaining a healthy lifestyle and strengthening the management of chronic diseases are crucial for the prevention and treatment of malignant tumors.