江淮水利科技Issue(4)：28-33,6.DOI:10.20011/j.cnki.JHWR.202404006
基于ARIMA时序模型的灌区供需水量预测研究
Research on water supply and demand forecasting in irrigation areas based on the ARIMA time series mode
张书宝1
作者信息
- 1. 安徽省茨淮新河工程管理局,安徽 蚌埠 233400
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To achieve scientific prediction for water allocation and management in the Cihuai New River Irrigation Area,an ana-lytical system for the balance of water supply and demand was established in the irrigation area,using the actual water extrac-tion data from 1991 to 2023.Using grey relational analysis and the ARIMA time series model,the impact of water demand indi-cators such as agriculture,domestic use,and navigation on total water extraction and forecasts future water demand were ana-lyzed.The results showed that the highest correlation degree between irrigation water demand and actual pumping amount was 0.8983.Through multiple tests and model training,the ARIMA model achieved a prediction accuracy of 88.587%,and provided an effective reference for water supply and scheduling in the irrigation area.The prediction method proposed in this paper could be extended to other water-scarce regions,offering a reference for the optimization management of water supply and demand.关键词
灌区水量管理/ARIMA模型/灰色关联度分析/水量预测Key words
irrigation water management/ARIMA model/grey relational analysis/water volume prediction分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张书宝..基于ARIMA时序模型的灌区供需水量预测研究[J].江淮水利科技,2024,(4):28-33,6.
