畜牧产业结构变动对生猪价格的影响OA北大核心CSTPCD

In the era of digital economy,the livestock industry,as a key driving force for the development of modern agriculture and the promotion of agricultural economic growth,plays an important role in pig prices in China.Based on pig price data from February 2011 to January 2023,spanning a total of 144 months,this paper employs the VAR model to empirically test the impact of changes in the livestock industry structure on pig prices.The results show that changes in the livestock industry structure are a Granger cause of pig price fluctuations.The pig prices are affected by the lagged impact of changes in the livestock industry structure.The pig prices were negatively impacted by the changes in the livestock industry structure in the first two periods,and and began to be positively affected by the changes in the livestock industry structure from the third period.The response reached its peak in the 12th period,and the impact tended to disappear in the 24th period.The shock response cycle of changes in the livestock industry structure to pig prices is approximately two years,with a contribution rate of 10.85％still present by the end of the second year.The study indicates that changes in the livestock industry structure have a positive impact on the pig prices.